Wall Street gains on stimulus hopes, but ends week lower

Stocks climbed on Friday on news the European Central Bank is considering setting targets in a new bond-buying program that could help contain euro-zone borrowing costs and on hopes of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

 

Despite the day's advance, the S&P 500 broke a six-week string of gains. For the week, the benchmark index fell 0.5 percent. Conflicting perceptions of the Fed's commitment to provide more stimulus took a toll on the market this week.

 

Investor sentiment received a lift on Friday from U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the Fed has room to deliver additional monetary stimulus to boost the U.S. economy. Bernanke made the comment in a letter to a congressional oversight panel.

 

The letter comes a week ahead of the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Bernanke and ECB President Mario Draghi will speak.

 

The ECB is discussing yield-band targets under a new bond-buying program to let it shield its strategy and avoid speculators trying to cash in, central bank sources told Reuters on Friday. Any decision would not be made before the ECB's September 6 policy meeting.

 

"If there can be a nice balance of stimulus that keeps interest rates low, as opposed to throwing more debt at the problems in Europe, and some level of austerity, Europe can get out of this tangle. But that balance is really the key," said Bryant Evans, investment advisor and portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management, in Champaign, Illinois.

 

The market's gains were fairly broad. The S&P financial index (REU:^GSPFI) rose 0.6 percent, with shares of American Express (AXP) up 1.9 percent at $57.49. The S&P consumer discretionary index (REU:^GSPDI) climbed 0.8 percent, with shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) up 1.9 percent at $245.74. During the session, Amazon's stock hit a lifetime intraday high of $246.87.

The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) rose 100.51 points, or 0.77 percent, to end at 13,157.97. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^GSPC) added 9.05 points, or 0.65 percent, to 1,411.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC) gained 16.39 points, or 0.54 percent, to close at 3,069.79.

Volume was the second lowest for a full day this year, with 4.6 billion shares trading on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex. The year-to-date average is 6.6 billion.

The Dow also broke a six-week string of gains, losing 0.9 percent for the week. The Nasdaq slipped 0.2 percent for the week after posting five weeks of gains.

 

In a letter to a congressional oversight panel on Friday, Bernanke said, "There is scope for further action by the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions and strengthen the recovery.

Early in the day, the S&P 500 briefly fell below the 1,400 level following cautious comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel about Greece staying in the euro zone.

It was the first time in two weeks that the benchmark S&P 500 had dipped below 1,400.

"Intermediate-term, weekly indicators, tracking one- to two-quarter shifts are not yet overbought and, in theory, have potential to carry equities higher into the fall," said Robert Sluymer, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets LLC, in New York.

 

Among gaining stocks, Supervalu (SVU) shares jumped 10.9 percent to $2.35 as the U.S. grocery company's advisers sought potential buyers to bid for the entire business, even as several suitors have inquired about its individual parts, according to a Bloomberg report.

On the downside were shares of Autodesk (ADSK), which slid 15.6 percent to $30.13. The stock was downgraded by various brokerages a day after the design software maker's quarterly results fell short of expectations for the first time in nearly two years.

 

On the data front, new orders for durable goods, which are long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods such as computers and aircraft, surged in July, even as declines in a gauge of planned business spending pointed to a slowing growth trend in manufacturing.

 

The mixed data added to the market's uncertainty on whether the Federal Reserve will act soon to bolster the economy.

The LEU-ul, more sensitive to repos than to the political scene - 22.08 - ECHIPA BNR-ului INTOTDEAUNA PE FAZA :)

Analysts are predicting a smaller fluctuation of the leu after the decision of the Constitutional Court

The LEU yesterday depreciated against the Euro, after gaining for four consecutive sessions. The national currency fell almost continuously over the course of last month, as well as in the first days of this month, amid the political tensions. The trend reversed on August 6th, when the National Bank of Romania (NBR) announced it would cap the amounts it would lend to banks in repo operations at six billion lei. On that day, the exchange rate fell to 4.5740 lei/euro, more than seven bani below the amount recorded during the previous sessions. The drop continued for more than three sessions, with the Euro trading at 4.5362 lei on August 3rd. On the next session there was a slight rise, and then on August 13th, when the NBR announced another capping of the amounts lend in repo operations, to 5 billion lei, the exchange rate fell by almost 1 ban, to 4.5307 lei/Euro. The downward trend has remained in place for the entire week.

Yesterday the third consecutive repo cap was implemented. The Central Bank only offered lenders four billion lei, even though demand was more than three times greater. In spite of that, the leu no longer gained against the Euro.

 

* Aurelian Dochia: The NBR is faced with a compromise

The NBR is currently faced with a compromise, economic analyst Aurelian Dochia considers. The policy of the Central Bank to cap the amounts offered on repo has stabilized the exchange rate, but at the same time could lead to a significant increase in interest rates, which would affect the financing of the budget deficit, he explained. "The NBR is fighting on two fronts and it can't win on both. There is an interest in showing that the volatility of the exchange rate is not that big, but on the other hand, if the interest rate will continue to increase, we will probably see a more relaxed monetary policy from the Central Bank", said Aurelian Dochia.

The economic analyst does not expect the markets to react immediately to the decision of the Constitutional Court, because they have already weighed the three scenarios which seem to be most probable, namely the validation of the referendum, its invalidation or the postponement of the decision.

In the medium and long term however, the evolution of the exchange rate will depend on the policies of the Central Bank, as well as on the development of the political scene, he warned.
Aurelian Dochia considers that it is difficult to say which of the first two alternatives would be better, but stressed that the most harmful scenario would be to postpone the decision of the Court.

* Dragoş Cabat: Limiting the amounts offered on repo, only possible in the short term

The NBR can only implement the measure to cap the amounts it will lend to banks in the short term, said financial analyst Dragoş Cabat. If the Central Bank will continue to cap these amounts, there is the risk that banks will refuse to buy government bonds in the absence of increasing yields, he explained. "If the NBR will not give the banks lei with which to buy Euros, demand for government bonds would be severely affected", said Dragoş Cabat.

* ING: The decision of the Constitutional Court will not have a positive effect - intotdeauna au exagerat :)

The decision of the Constitutional Court (CCR) concerning the referendum for the dismissal of the president will not have positive effects, regardless of what it will be, a report by ING states. If the referendum is invalidated, and Traian Băsescu returns to Cotroceni, this would escalate the political war, said Vlad Muscalu, economist with the group.

If the CCR validates the referendum, and the president is dismissed, early presidential elections would follow, which runs the risk of escalating the possible fiscal overruns, which would cause even further foreign criticism, according to him. Not even the alternative where the Court does not make a decision would be favorable, because it would extend the uncertainty, the analyst said, who considers that this situation is also the least likely, as a decision needs to be made by at least six of the nine judges.

According to ING, the strengthening of the leu seems to have lost its momentum, which is supported by its sideways moves, and by the absence of a clear show of support from the NBR. "Negative price action on the main equity markets suggest that the leu could continue to weaken today, but the memory of the recent (assumed) interventions should limit its extent", Vlad Muscalu also said.

The exchange rate yesterday closed near 4.5 lei/Euro. The Euro also depreciated against the dollar yesterday, to 3.6404 lei, and against the Swiss Franc, which rose to 3.7413 lei.

Federal Reserve officials debate easing options

Minutes released from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting show the central bank is considering two key measures to boost the U.S. economy.

A third round of large bond purchases known as quantitative easing -- or QE3 -- is still on the table, as is a plan to lay out more explicit guidelines for Fed policy going forward.

While the Fed's policy-making committee discussed both options in detail, the minutes show that several members expressed concerns about QE3. Some fear that buying more Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities could distort the bond market, while others worried that additional purchases could "increase the risks to financial stability or lead to a rise in long-term inflation expectations."

But when it comes to using clearer communications as a tool, the minutes show far less dissension.

The Federal Reserve has recently said it is likely to hold interest rates near "exceptionally low levels" at least through late 2014, but at the August meeting, some Fed officials noted that they would like to extend that date out further.

This guidance in itself is thought to be an effective tool for stimulating the economy, since it leads investors to expect low returns on safe-haven assets and encourages investment in riskier assets like stocks.

 

Some Fed officials noted however, that the tool might be more effective if it was combined with clearer guidelines. For example, policymakers could lay out specific economic conditions that would push them to raise interest rates in the future.

A few months ago, several Fed members were only in favor of additional stimulus if the economic recovery deteriorated.

Now, it seems many are in favor of additional easing, as long as conditions remain the same.

"Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery," the minutes said.

Fed members also discussed lowering the rate on excess reserves or exploring a program like the Bank of England's Funding for Lending Scheme, but from the minutes, it doesn't seem either of those measures gained widespread support within the committee.

Chairman Ben Bernanke may offer more hints about the Fed's next move in a speech at Jackson Hole, Wyo. next week. The Fed's next meeting is scheduled to conclude September 13.

Fed looks set to ease fairly soon barring swift rebound

The Federal Reserve is likely to deliver another round of monetary stimulus "fairly soon" unless the economy improves considerably, minutes from the U.S. central bank's latest meeting suggested.

 

While the July 31-August 1 meeting occurred before some encouraging economic data, including a stronger-than-expected rise in July payrolls, policymakers were pretty categorical about their dissatisfaction with the outlook, according to the minutes released on Wednesday.

 

"Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery," the Fed said.

 

Wall Street stocks erased most losses after the Fed released the minutes. Treasury bond prices, which have been under pressure from stronger economic figures, extended gains. The dollar fell and the euro surged to a seven-week high against the greenback at the prospect of the Fed providing more stimulus.

 

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 30.82 points at 13,172.76, although well above its session low, but the broader S&P 500 Index clawed back from losses to end 0.32 point higher at 1,413.49.

"Certainly these minutes are dovish and will revive hopes for increased Fed easing," said David Sloan, economist at 4Cast Ltd. "We have seen some improvement in the data recently, but whether it is enough to qualify as a significant upturn is unclear."

 

The Fed cut overnight interest rates to near zero in December 2008 and has bought $2.3 trillion in U.S. government debt and mortgage-related bonds in a further effort to push borrowing costs lower. It has said it does not expect to raise rates until late-2014 at the earliest.

 

Some officials at the meeting raised concerns about the Fed's large presence in the markets for Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, but others agreed with a staff analysis showing "substantial capacity" for buying new assets.

 

The Fed held policy steady at the gathering but signaled a renewed readiness to act amid lingering softness in the economy in a statement it issued following the meeting.

 

The minutes showed the central bank is actively considering a "flexible" bond-buying program, which suggests it may not announce an upfront amount to purchase, as it did in the past.

"A move to an open-ended policy stance would be a important and powerful shift in the implementation of Fed policy; it would, in effect, say that the Fed is in motion until the data tell it to stop," Michael Gapen, at Barclays Bank in New York, wrote in a research note to clients.

 

Fed officials saw significant risks to an already weak U.S. economy, which grew at a sluggish 1.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter. The risks include a worsening of Europe's financial strains and looming U.S. budget cuts and tax hikes, which have become commonly known as the fiscal cliff.

U.S. economic data since the meeting has been a bit less gloomy. Although employment growth slowed sharply in the second quarter, it picked up again in July, when the economy created 163,000 jobs. But the unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate Labor Department survey, rose to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent in June.

At the last meeting, many Fed officials supported pushing back the likely timing of the eventual first rate hike, but they decided to defer the decision to the Fed's next meeting on September 12-13, when the central bank will release a new round of economic forecasts.

A few central bankers thought it might be a good idea to replace such language with guidance directly linked to economic factors, as has been proposed by Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans.

Officials also debated and tested the possibility of developing a consensus Fed forecast for the economy, and an associated path for monetary policy under a long-standing effort to improve communication on their thinking. They decided to hold a second test in conjunction with September's meeting.

 

A couple of policymakers favored lowering the rate the Fed pays banks to park their excess reserves at the central bank, currently at 0.25 percent. But several worried that money market funds could run into trouble if their returns are crimped further.

 

Officials noted the European Central Bank's recent decision to lower its deposit rate to zero offered a chance to learn about possible effects.

Similarly, a couple of officials broached the possibility of developing a loan incentive program like the Bank of England's recently minted funding-for-lending program.

The 80 billion pound ($127 billion) project, launched in June by the British central bank and the government, is designed to spur lending by tying banks' access to cheap credit directly to bank lending to households and businesses.

Positive outlook for the stock prices of "Transelectrica" and "Transgaz" - TEL & TGN on BSE

Expectations of the stock market analysts concerning the future evolution of the quotations of the two major energy transporters listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) - the National Company for the Transport of Electricity "Transelectrica" (symbol: TEL) and the National Company for the Transport of Natural Gas "Transgaz" (symbol: TGN), are optimistic. The shares of the two companies fell in the first half of the year, after the registration date for dividends, and their profits in the first semester were smaller than in the similar period of last year.

* Nicu Grigoraş, "Intercapital Invest": The shares of TEL can grant investors very good returns in the next months

Shares of TEL and TGN fell after the passing of the registration dates, just like most of the stocks on the BSE, said Nicu Grigoraş, broker at "Intercapital Invest". However, the downward trend was broken at the end of July, once the upward trend of the foreign markets was confirmed, which made the domestic market follow suit, he went on to say.
Nicu Grigoraş said: "The dividend registration date coincided with the end of the secondary offering conducted by «Transelectrica». Once the registration date fell, the shares of TEL fell, just like most of the listed companies. The downward trend was halted by the unexpectedly good evolution of the foreign markets during the summer. If this trend stays on, the shares of TEL will give investors very good returns in the coming months".
 The secondary public offer for 15% of the shares of TGN will most likely take place by the end of the year, under the pressure of the International Monetary Fund (FMI), the broker of "Intercapital Invest" said. In the opinion of Nicu Grigoraş, the success of the offer is extremely important for the subsequent development of the stock market, as well as for the ambitious public offers plan which the government wants to implement upon the insistence of the IMF, in the coming years.
Nicu Grigoraş also said: "it remains to be seen what will be the approach of the majority shareholder and of the intermediation union, when it comes to the technical method for conducting the offering and the price at which the stock will be made available to investors. I think that the success of the similar offer of «Transelectrica» could be a very good gauge, of how to adjust the price of the offer, as well as for the technical method for conducting the offer. The public offer of «Transelectrica» practically showed us what investors want from such an offer when it comes to transparency and the pricing of the stock".

* Mihai Chişu, "IFB Finwest": "I expect the offer of TGN will be successful if the state will use all the necessary ingredients"

"Transelectrica" and "Transgaz", two of the "blue chips" listed on the BSE, have evolved differently over the last years, even though they have the same majority shareholder, a similar monopoly position and similar lines of business, from certain points of view, said Mihai Chişu, broker at "IFB Finwest".
"Transgaz" is the company which succeeds in defying the financial crisis, while at the same time seeing rising profits and rewarding its stockholders generously, the broker said.
"Transelectrica", on the other hand, is more easily influenced by the evolution of the economy, as the Euro/leu exchange rate has a major impact on the balance sheet of the company, Mihai Chişu also explained.
"The firs six months brought smaller profits for both companies, compared to the similar period of last year, in the case of «Transgaz»m especially due to the increase in the amortization of fixed assets. When it comes to «Transelectrica», the explanation is lower revenues, due to the lower volumes of energy transported and the increase of the financial losses", he went on to say.
The offer of "Transgaz" has been awaited for a long time by investors due to the company's earnings and its line of business, the "IFB Finwest" broker continues.
He said: "I expect the offer to be successful if the state will use all the necessary ingredients: a price recommended by the consortium, adequate marketing, focus on institutional, as well as on retail investors, and a well drafted business plan, which would include the future plans for the company and its dividend policy. If aside from these criteria, the state will also consider it opportune to offers tax breaks to stock market investors, at least when it comes to listings, in order to make them more attractive, I am convinced that this kind of offers will enjoy great success and will spur the development of the Romanian stock market".
 

Igor Popov, "SSIF Broker": "In the medium and long run, I expect the stock of TEL will recover"

The evolution of the price of TEL after the Secondary Public Offering is disappointing, in the opinion of Igor Popov, analyst with "SSIF Broker". He explained: "Most certainly the investors who subscribed the offer at the price of 14.9 lei/share, were convinced they were making a good purchase and they didn't expect the price to go all the way to the low of 12 lei/share. There were probably a lot of people who subscribed just to sell in the market at a price as high as possible, but seeing the price was dropping, they got rid of their positions, and they put an even greater pressure on the price. If we add up the dividend paid by «Transelectrica» to the current market price, we will note that the stock only has to recoup 5% to reach the price in the offering.
I expect that in the medium and long term, the stock of TEL will recover. The company continues to generate a significant EBITDA (ed. note: earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) which sooner or later will have a positive effect".
Igor Popov considers that indeed, the operational activity of "Transelectrica" generated smaller profits, which caused concern among investors. Nevertheless, he thinks that the changes in the tariff of the transport of electricity, which are unavoidable, and the potential for an increase in the consumption of electricity will boost the company's performance in the future.
In the case of the stock of TGN, the analyst says that he hasn't noticed anything out of the ordinary. The price of the stock has adjusted with the value of the dividend and has risen slightly, since the beginning of the year, which is fully justified by the higher degree of safety which the stock in question provides, said Igor Popov.
He considers that even as its earnings estimates have been cut since 2011, "Transgaz" achieved a satisfactory performance, and its profit only fell slightly.
"«Transgaz» has once again shown a high degree of stability of its earnings, and it remains a sturdy company, capable of providing investors with a «haven», in the context of the economic fluctuations", the analyst said.
As for the secondary offer of "Transgaz", the analyst said: "Looking back, to the experience of the offering of «Transelectrica», I find it hard to imagine the offering of «Transgaz» without a discount compared to the market price. It is true that this is a different company, with much better earnings and which might be of interest to a different group of investors. I think that we will see the price in the offering be approximately 10% below market price".

* Mihai Iulian Căruntu, BCR: "In 2013, there are chances of the stock of TEL stabilizing above 15 lei/share"

This year is unavoidably a weak one, in terms of financial results, for "Transelectrica", but probably not as bad as 2009 and 2010 were, considers Mihai Iulian Căruntu, coordinator of the Stock Market Research Team at BCR.
He explained that the reasons behind such as earnings are tied to the fact that the results which fundamentally influence the earnings had an unfavorable evolution this year: the contraction of the electricity output by over 5%, the fact that the tariff for the transport of electricity has remained the same as in 2011 and the depreciation of the leu against the Euro, which, aside from the higher interest expenses, also mean a financial loss from the exchange rate differences, which affect the net profit and the potential dividend, the analyst said.
However, according to the analyst of BCR, the good news would be that for the next year, there are perspectives for a completely different evolution of the three aforementioned variables, and as a result, there would be conditions for better earnings next year, which would support the price of the TEL stock in 2013, he stressed.
 Mihai Iulian Căruntu said: "«Transelectrica» is trading at a 35-40% discount compared to the similar companies in the West, which are, however, far more leveraged, which would leave room for an improvement in the valuation of the stock of TEL, in the medium run. In spite of the perceived high risk of regulation, we think that the shares of TEL are trading at a an excessive discount compared to other similar companies, and in 2013, in the case of improved financial results and depending on the general conditions on the financial markets, there are chances of the price stabilizing above 15 lei/share".
Shares of "Transgaz" also fell 10%, this year, while they reconfirmed their status as the most stable dividend stock on the BSE, with a dividend yield of 12%, before the ex-dividend date, the analyst of BCR said. "This in itself indicates the fact that the market, and indirectly, foreign investors are asking for very low prices (in other words, very high discounts, compared to similar assets on the mature markets) in order to expose themselves to the Romanian assets", he said.
The H1 earnings of "Transgaz" were lower, due to the drop in the volume of the transport business, says Mihai Iulian Căruntu, and he estimates that the annual earnings will be slightly lower compared to 2011. "They will however be good enough to allow the granting of a dividend in 2012, which would represent dividend yield of more than 10%", the analyst said.

In light of the secondary public offer of "Transgaz" which will be launched by the government, Mihai Iulian Căruntu said: "The most important thing will be for the majority shareholder, the regulatory authority - ANRE -, and the company to clarify to what extent, at the request of the European Commission, the business of transit with «Bulgargaz» and «Gazprom» may be partially or fully regulated (more likely in the case of «Bulgargaz»). In this scenario, it needs to be clearly said to what extent the company's profitability would be affected, since it is well known that the transit activity accounts for 40-50% of the operating profit. The perception concerning the regulation risk of «Transgaz» is deteriorating anyway after, for the third consecutive year, the company did not see an increase in the domestic transport tariff for three years in a row, without any public explanation from the regulatory authority on that.
As for the potential discount which the price of the SPO might offer compared to the market when the time comes, there will probably be a discount which will offer a strict motivation to investors in the short term. But investors will decide whether the price of the secondary public offer is attractive or not simply based on their perception of the regulatory risk and part of the marketing effort will need to focus on that area".
Considering the stability of the transit business, the current price on the BSE would be attractive as a reference, compared to the dividend yield, the stability of the company and the valuation levels of similar companies, considers Mihai Iulian Căruntu.

 

* Simion Tihon, "Prime Transaction": "I thin that when it comes to the offer of TGN, market context will be very important"

In the case of the secondary public offer for the sale of 15% of "Transgaz", the market context will matter a lot, considers Simion Tihon, broker at "Prime Transaction". He said: "We saw what happened at «OMV Petrom» and, later, with «Transelectrica». The discount will certainly be a criterion which will cause investors to participate in this offering or to stay away, and I think that the state will appropriately use the expertise it gained in the «Transelectrica» SPO. I am referring here to discount as well as transparency".
After the offering, what is important will also be the general context of the market, when and how the state will decide to allocate the shares in the offer to the institutional and retail investors, Simion Tihon also said.
The shares of "Transelectrica" had a negative evolution, after the public offer in the month of March, an evolution which was caused both by the financial results of the company, by the ex-dividend date, as well as by the difficult international context, he said. "In the medium and long term, the expectations are optimistic for the stock of «Translectrica», even as the exchange rate and the negotiation of the transport tariff for energy have an important influence on the company's earnings", the broker said.
The shares of "Transgaz" had a very good start this year, with the correction following the ex-dividend being followed by the same unfavorable international context, Simion Tihon added.
The two companies reported slightly lower earnings, but they are a correct reflection of the state of the economy, the broker of "Prime Transaction" considers.

About SIF's - Financial Investment Companies (Banat-Crisana, Moldova, Transilvania, Muntenia, Oltenia) & BETFI (FP - Proprietatea Fund) from Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) - SEM I results

The five financial investment companies (SIFs) and the Proprietatea Fund also reported profit increases at the end of the first semester, according to their bi-annual financial statements.
At the end of H1 2012, the Proprietatea Fund recorded a net profit of 573.85 million lei.
In the first semester, SIF "Moldova" made the biggest profit of the five SIFs (128.81 million lei), followed by SIF "Transilvania", which had a net profit of 112.73 million lei.
The SIF with the smallest profit at the end of H1, was SIF "Muntenia" (51.92 million lei).
The biggest increase of the profit in the first semester of this year, compared to the similar period of last year, was reported by SIF "Banat-Crişana", which increased its profit 6.78 times, to 96.49 million lei.

 

* Daniela Ropotă, "Intercapital Invest": SIF "Moldova", SIF "Transilvania" and SIF "Banat-Crişana" have already exceeded their profit targets

After the first six months of the year, all of the SIFs had higher earnings compared to last year's similar period. In the case of SIF "Banat-Crişana" and SIF "Muntenia" the results were significantly influenced by the sale of the stakes in BCR, considers Daniela Ropotă, analyst with "Intercapital Invest".
She said: "Three of the SIFs have already exceeded their profit target: SIF < Moldova >, SIF < Transilvania > and SIF < Banat-Crişana >. The revenues have also been helped by the higher than expected dividends earned, by provisions and interest revenues. According to the available data, all of the SIFs have conducted investments on the domestic stock market, and SIF < Banat-Crişana > and SIF < Moldova > made new acquisitions on the foreign market as well".
 According to Daniela Ropotă, SIF "Moldova" has the biggest net profit, having already exceeded its target for the year 2012 by 68%.
The financial results of SIF "Moldova" stem from the increase of revenues from the sale of stakes, as well as dividends earned which exceeded expectations, he said.
The analyst of "Intercapital Invest" also said: "Over the last year, (ed. note: SIF "Moldova") has reduced its exposure to the financial sector, by selling its stake in BCR, as well as by selling some stakes in BRD, and has bought shares in the energy sector. The number of companies in which SIF < Moldova > owns stakes has dropped by 18 compared to H1 20111, by sales and deletions from the trade registry, but the number of controlling and majority stakes has remained constant".
Other SIFs which have already exceeded their profit target for this year are SIF "Transilvania" and SIF "Banat-Crişana", the former by 27%, and the latter by 20%, the analyst said.
SIF "Banat-Crişana" sold its stake in BCR, but even without it, its profit increased compared to H1 2011, equivalent to that of SIF "Transilvania", Daniela Ropotă said.
According to her: "SIF < Oltenia >, with a noteworthy profit growth, of 84% YOY in H1 2012, meets the budget for the current year by 62%. The company has liquidated its stakes in several companies, such as < Comat Cluj-Napoca >, < Turbomecanica > and < Artego > as well as making acquisitions, predominantly in the energy sector".
In the first semester, the Proprietatea fund also made a higher profit than the profit predicted for the entire year 2012, the analyst of "Intercapital Invest" said.
Most of the expectations for the year 2012, seems to have come true in the first semester, so the evolution of the SIFs in the coming period will depend significantly on general aspects such as the program for privatization on the stock market and the general market context, she said.

 

* Marcel Murgoci, "Estinvest": In the past semester, the investment and the divestment activities of the SIFs have intensified

SIF "Moldova" and SIF "Transilvania" posted the biggest profits out of the five financial investment companies, said Marcel Murgoci, operations manager at "Estinvest" Focşani.
Thus, SIF 2 posted a profit about 4 times greater than the one in the first semester of 2011, with most of it stemming from its trading activity, he explained.
The trading director of "Estinvest" said: "Also, SIF < Transilvania > concluded the first semester with a profit 25% higher than the one it posted in H1 2011. Just like SIF < Moldova >, the profit of SIF3 is due to the portfolio activities.
Another SIF with remarkable operations was SIF < Banat-Crişana >: its revenues increased three times due to the trade with BCR.
SIF < Muntenia > had the lowest profit of the five SIFs, but it was five times higher than the one which was presented on June 30th, 2011. SIF4 got 53.5 million lei out of the trade with BCR stock, which had a positive impact on the profitability of SIF < Muntenia >.
In the first semester of 2012, SIF < Oltenia > saw an 84% profit increase over the first semester of 2011, and its CEO announcd the intensification of the divestment and speculative activities. It is worth noting that it is the only SIF that still has shares in BCR".
Thus, the results of the SIFs are good enough, compared to the evolution of the stock market in the last semester, as the managers of the SIFs are far more aware of the fact that trading can bring consistent revenues, compared to the dividends which they may or may not get, said Marcel Murgoci.
 In the last semester, investment and divestment activities have intensified, each SIF wanting to maximize the value of its portfolio and implicitly that of its assets, he went on to say.
In the first semester, the "Proprietatea Fund" saw a profit increase of 5.60% over the similar period of 2011, with the dividends to be earned contributing to a great extent to that increase, the trading manager said.
The posted results do not represent a surprise for investors, especially since the value of the dividends to earn by investors was known since the end of April, Marcel Murgoci went on to say.
It was to be expected that trading would intensify, especially after the Proprietatea Fund successfully made its exit from "Azomureş", he said.
Marcel Murgoci also said: "The future evolution of the price, for the SIFs, will be predominantly influenced by the raise of the holding limit from 1% to 5%, with what happened at SIF4 being telling. Furthermore, because four SIFs have sizeable stakes in EBS (ed. note: Erste Group Bank), the evolution of that stock will affect the trend for the price of the SIFs' stocks.
As for the evolution of the stock of the Proprietatea Fund, the news concerning the situation of < Hidroelectrica >, as well as the listing on the Warsaw Stock Exchange could significantly affect the price of the stock of the Proprietatea Fund".
A significant return of the dividend, for the 2012 fiscal year, higher than the interest rate on bank deposits (at the current prices) could determine the investors to buy shares in the SIFs and the Proprietatea Fund, he explained.

* Gabriel Goia, "BT Asset Management": The SIFs' earnings reflect the possibility of providing a high dividend yield in 2013 as well

In the case of the SIFs, the largest part of the revenues in the first semester came from sold financial investments, representing sales of "Erste" shares, which had very little associated costs, said Gabriel Goia, the head of the Asset Placement department of "BT Asset Management".
The discount compared to the net asset fell for most of the SIFs in the second quarter, but the results in the first semester reflect the possibility of a high dividend yield, for the coming year as well, he went on to say.
The profit recorded by the Proprietatea Fund, in the first semester, is first of all due to the dividends received from "OMV Petrom" and "Romgaz", as the performance of the energy sector remains the main driver for the company's results, the analyst of "BT Asset Management" said. "For most of the SIFs, the revenues from sold financial investments will be a major contributor to the financial result for the 2012 year end, and maintaining a dividend yield higher than the interests on bank deposits will maintain the interest of investors.
For the Proprietatea Fund, a potential better than expected evolution of the price of crude, on a global level, will represent an upside. The factors which will influence its future valuation will be the profits obtained using the sale of assets, as well as a potential recovery of at least a part of the losses incurred from the insolvency of < Hidroelectrica >".

* Simion Tihon, "Prime Transaction": The effect of the raising of the holding cap at the SIFs is far from having been exhausted

The changes made in the portfolio, by selling some assets booked at a historical price, together with including the registration data for dividends at the companies in the portfolio, have led to the reporting of positive results for all the companies which make up BET-FI, said Simion Tihon, broker at "Prime Transaction".
In the first semester, the Proprietatea Fund had a net profit of 575 million lei, and that result is a consequence of the exceptional profits achieved by the companies in its portfolio ("SNP", "Romgaz", etc.), as well as the fact that the Proprietatea Fund also subscribed, in the takeover bid for "Azomureş", he went on to say.
Also, according to him, the profit of the Proprietatea Fund was influenced by the sale at a loss of stakes in "Erste Group Bank" and "Raiffeisen Bank".
Simion Tihon said: "Among the SIFs, we see the good evolution of the profit of SIF < Banat-Crişana > and SIF < Moldova >. SIF2 solds its entire stake in the Proprietatea Fund >, a move which had a positive influence on the earnings of the company in the first semester.
An interesting strategy was adopted by SIF < Oltenia >, which increased its stakes in < Transelectrica >, < OMV Petrom >, < Electromagnetica > and < Biofarm >.
SIF5 also sold part of its shares in the Proprietatea Fund >.
However, investors were familiar with these results, as part of the data was published at the same time as the report on the NAVPS (ed. note: Net Asset Value per Share) on June 30th, 2012".
For the second half of the year, expectations are optimistic, but the results will be pondered by the fact that the dividend registration period has passed, the broker said. Simion Tihon considers that the SIFs will remain an attraction for investors, as the effect of the raising of the holding cap is far from being exhausted.
In the Proprietatea Fund, there are two aspects that matter: the listing in Warsaw and the exit from insolvency of "Hidroelectrica", he added.

* SIF2 - the largest profit among the financial investment companies

At the end of the first semester, the profit of SIF "Moldova" (SIF2) amounted to 128.81 million lei, 3.84 times greater than in the first half of last year.
Between January and June, the total revenues of SIF "Moldova" reached 207.24 million lei, up from 74.76 million lei, on June 30th, 2011, and total expenses reached 63.07 million lei in the first semester, 1.6 times higher than the ones reported in the similar period of 2011.
Employee expenses reported by SIF "Moldova" after the first semester, increased 70.44% compared to the first semester of last year, to 20.57 million lei.
On June 30th, receivables of SIF2 reached 159.13 million lei, up 21.73% compared to the ones reported on December 31st, 2011, and the debts reached 128.118 million lei, at the end of the first semester, 2.2 times higher than they were at the end of last year.
The net asset of SIF "Moldova", in June, was 1.002 billion lei, down 16.5% compared to June 2011, when SIF2 "Moldova" reported net assets of 1.201 billion lei.

* SIF1 - the biggest profit increase

In the first semester of the year, SIF "Banat-Crişana" (SIF1) reported a net profit of 96.49 million lei, 6.78 times greater than the one recorded in the first half of 2011, 14.23 million lei.
Its total revenues increased significantly compared to the similar period of 2011, to 135.02 million lei, on June 30, 2012, compared to 43.07 million lei, on June 30, 2011.
Between January and June, the total expenses of SIF "Banat-Crişana" reached 22.63 million lei, down 19.77% YOY.
On June 30, SIF1 had 7.29 million lei in receivables, significantly higher than in the beginning of the year, when they amounted to 584,861 lei, and the current debts of the company reached 91.37 million lei, 2.4 times higher than in the beginning of the year.
On June 30, 2012, the value of the net assets (NAV) of "SIF Banat-Crişana" was almost 1.27 billion lei, down 2.5% over the value reported on December 31st, 2011, of 1.3 billion lei.

* Profit of SIF3 rose to 112.7 million lei

SIF "Transilvania" (SIF3) ended the first quarter with a net profit of 112.7 million lei, up 25.3% over the one obtained in the similar period of last year (approximately 90 million lei).
During the reviewed period, the revenues of SIF3 rose 22%, from 147.5 million lei to 179.7 million lei.
The expenses of SIF "Transilvania" increased 16%, to 49.8 million lei, up from 42.9 million lei in H1 2011.
The debts of SIF3, at the end of H1 2012, amounted to 222.07 million lei, up 175.97 million over the end of 2011. Receivables increased 3.69 million lei, over December 2011 to 5.17 million lei.
In the first semester, the net assets of SIF3 fell 20.26% over the similar period of 2011, from 1.461 billion lei, to 1.165 billion

* Tudor Ciurezu, SIF5: "Our goal is to obtain a high liquidity, low risk portfolio"

At the end of H1 2012, the company recorded good results, as the profit obtained in the first semester represents 62% of the profit planned for this year, said Tudor Ciurezu, the chairman of the board of directors of SIF "Oltenia".
The president of SIF5 said that the company would try to invest in stocks which have a high efficiency and to conduct trades on the stock exchange in companies which present stability and a potential to see their stock rise.
Tudor Ciurezu said: "Our goal is to obtain a high liquidity, low risk portfolio. The ideal thing would be to only have stakes in listed companies. We will continue our quantitative and qualitative restructuring of our portfolio. We want to only keep stakes in traded companies, as well as in liquid, stable companies, which would weather the turmoil on the domestic and foreign markets".
 In the first semester. SIF "Oltenia" (SIF5) had a profit of 54.2 million lei, up 83.9% than in the first semester of last year, when it posted a profit of 29.47 million lei.
Between January and June, the total revenues of SIF "Oltenia" increased to 86.66 million lei, up 88.17% over last year's similar period, and total expenses reached 28.68 million lei, compared to 15.13 million lei, at the end of June 2011.
The value of the receivables of SIF5, was 23.5 million lei on June 30, and its debts amounted to 175.89 million lei.
The NAV of SIF "Oltenia" fell from 1.685 billion lei, at the end of 2011, to 1.511 billion lei, in H1 2012.

* SIF4 - the smallest profit of the five SIFs

In the first half of the year, SIF "Muntenia" (SIF4) made the lowest profit of the five companies, 51.92 million lei, but more than five times greater than in H1 2011 (10.15 million lei).
Between January and June, the total revenues of SIF4 amounted to 108.7 million lei, 2.55 times higher than the ones reported in the similar period of 2011, and total expenses increased 44.43% YOY, to 46.89 million lei.
The debts of SIF "Muntenia" rose 37.68% in H1 2012, to 131.65 million lei, compared to the beginning of the year, and on June 30, receivables reached 14.415 million lei, up 45.99% over December 31, 2011.
In the first half of the year, the net asset of SIF4 "Muntenia" fell 14.46% over the end of June 2011, to 1.171 billion lei.

* The profit of the Proprietatea climbed to 573.85 million lei The net profit of the Proprietatea Fund (FP) rose 5.65% YOY, to 573.85 million lei.
In the first six months, the total revenues reached 847.77 million lei, up 42.79% YOY. Total expenses reached 273.5 million lei at the end of June, 5.63 times higher than in the similar period of last year.
The debts of the Proprietatea Fund increased 383.6 million lei, to 425.9 million lei, in the first half of the year.
After a general increase of the Net Asset Value (NAV) in the first five months of this year, the NAV of the "Proprietatea Fund" fell 13,6% at the end of the first semester, compared to December 31st, 2011, to 0.9317.

Datoriile Spaniei şi Italiei, greu de măritat, dar se va rezolva cu timpul

Ziua de ieri a fost marcată în pieţele financiare din Europa de ştirile contradictorii privind poziţia Băncii Centrale Europene faţă de aşteptatele achiziţii ale instituţiei de titluri de stat italiene şi spaniole.

Un articol din publicaţia germană Der Spiegel menţiona ieri dimineaţa că intervenţiile BCE ar putea viza inclusiv o plafonare a costurilor de împrumut ale statelor cu probleme din Uniunea Europeană. Aceasta ar însemna că banca centrală ar putea trece la o tipărire masivă de euro, scrie Businessweek citând revista germană.

Ştirea a fost infirmată doar câteva ore mai târziu, mai întâi de Bundesbank şi de BCE. Banca centrală a Germaniei a menţionat, potrivit Reuters, că rămâne critică faţă de cumpărările de datorie publică din sistemul euro care ar implica riscuri pentru stabilitatea financiară.

BCE nu va trece deschis la monetizarea datoriilor şi va rămâne strict legată de mandatul său, menţionează un comunicat al instituţiei care califică articolul din Der Spiegel ca fiind "absolut înşelător", potrivit FT Alphaville. Blogul publicaţiei britanice Financial Times mai citează şi o declaraţie a purtătorului de cuvânt al Ministerului de Finanţe din Germania, Martin Kotthaus. "Nu suntem în cunoştinţă despre astfel de planuri şi nici nu am auzit nimic. În termeni pur teoretici, abstracţi, un asemenea instrument ar fi cu siguranţă foarte problematic. Dar nu ştiu nimic despre o propunere în această direcţie", a spus oficialul german.

Care a fost reacţia pieţei
În momentul în care articolul din Der Spiegel a ajuns în atenţia investitorilor impactul s-a resimţit direct asupra titlurilor de stat spaniole şi italiene. Randamentele emisiunilor cu scadenţa la zece ani s-au comprimat la 5,7% pentru cele spaniole şi 6,2% pentru cele ale Italiei, iar o mişcare pozitivă s-a resimţit şi pe indicii IBEX35 şi FTSE Mib ale Burselor din cele două ţări, după cum scrie publicaţia britanică The Telegraph.

După negarea venită din partea Bundesbank şi BCE, randamentele bonurilor de tezaur emise de Spania şi Italia s-au depărtat de minimele zilei în timp ce indicii bursieri au pierdut tot avansul de dimineaţă. O mişcare similară s-a produs şi pe moneda unică europeană. Potrivit cotaţiilor afişate de Yahoo Finance, perechea euro/dolar a urcat către nivelul de 1,236 dolari pentru un euro pentru ca apoi să coboare abrupt la nivelul de 1,23 dolari pentru un euro, pe fondul dezminţirilor bancherilor centrali.
Cum interpretăm datele contradictorii de ieri

"Nu iese fum fără foc", a declarat Claudiu Cazacu, analist financiar la X-Trade Brokers. El afirmă că deşi ipoteza enunţată în Der Spiegel a fost respinsă imediat, totuşi discuţiile ar putea merge mai departe în direcţia monetizării de către Banca Centrală Europeană a datoriilor statelor cu probleme.

Ar fi însă o surpriză ca decizii în acest sens să fie luate încă din septembrie.
Mai degrabă BCE va lăsa să se atenueze atitudinea optimistă din pieţe unde investitorii mizează pe intervenţii importante ale băncilor centrale.
Soluţia plafonării randamentelor - aşa cum a fost invocată în articolul din Der Spiegel - este puţin probabilă întrucât este riscantă.

Odată stabilită o limită, BCE ar fi foarte expusă atacurilor speculatorilor. Plafonul poate rezista pe momente de calm ale pieţei, însă pe valul unor turbulenţe ale pieţei limita poate fi doborâtă, iar apoi Banca Centrală Europeană ar putea avea împotriva ei toată piaţa care să parieze în direcţia contrară. Mai cu seamă dacă achiziţiile nu vor fi nelimitate, BCE ar fi vulnerabilă, a mai subliniat Cazacu.

El consideră că ar putea fi aleasă o variantă de mijloc, în care Banca Centrală Europeană să realizeze achiziţii limitate de titluri de stat spaniole şi italiene fără a anunţa un plafon al randamentelor pe respectivele emisiuni.
Chiar şi în această variantă, moneda euro şi activele de risc vor întâmpina obstacole până la finalul anului.

Cazacu se aşteaptă la deprecieri atât în pieţele de acţiuni cât şi pe obligaţiunile emise de statele cu probleme. Perechea valutară euro/dolar ar putea coborî chiar şi sub nivelul de 1,2 dolari pentru un euro. O corecţie este posibil să apară pe Burse în aceste zile, urmând ca anunţarea deciziilor de politică monetară în SUA şi Europa la 6 septembrie şi, respectiv 13 septembrie să fie în măsură să dea un nou impuls activelor de risc. Spre octombrie este de aşteptat însă revenirea scăderilor de vreme ce investitorii au pus prea multe speranţe în băncile centrale şi în capacitatea acestora de a răspunde impasului din pieţele financiare, a mai spus analistul de la XTB.

Spania şi Italia mizează, totuşi, pe ajutor
O soluţie de tipul celei prezentate în articolul din Der Spiegel ar reprezenta un colac de salvare pentru ţările cu probleme ale datoriei publice. Ministrul de Finanţe spaniol Luis de Guindos a spus că Guvernul pe care îl reprezintă aşteaptă ca Banca Centrală Europeană să treacă la cumpărări masive de datorie suverană înainte ca Spania să solicite o intervenţie a Facilităţii Europene de Stabilitate Financiară (EFSF), menţionează Wall Street Journal care citează agenţia spaniolă de ştiri EFE.

Premierul italian Mario Monti a avut o declaraţie în acelaşi sens la Rimini, potrivit Bloomberg.

"Euro este punctul culminant al construcţiei europene. Ar fi o tragedie dacă ar deveni, datorită inabilităţii noastre, a şefilor de Guverne, un factor de dislocare care să reînvie polarizarea nordului faţă de sud sau invers", a afirmat Monti.

Surse : presa economica din Romania

CONCLUZII despre rezultatele obtinute dupa SEMESTRUL I din ZONA EURO, conform rapoartelor EUROSTAT: 1. ECONOMISTII apreciaza ca NU NE VOM CONFRUNTA cu un COLAPS financiar & 2. COMISIA EUROPEANA (C.E.) vrea ca BANCA CENTRAL EUROPEANA (B.C.E.) sa SUPERVIZEZE toate BANCILE importante din zona euro

1. Economia zonei euro a scăzut cu 0,2% în perioada aprilie-iunie în comparație cu aceeași perioadă a anului trecut. Rapoartele Eurostat, care oferă informații despre toate țările care folosesc moneda euro, au arătat că în cel de-al doilea trimestru zona euro nu a înregistrat creștere economică.

Mai mult, cea mai puternică dintre economiile Europei, cea a Germaniei, a crescut cu doar 0,3% în cel de-al doilea trimestru datorită exporturilor și consumului intern.

Franța a anunțat că economia sa nu a înregistrat creștere în timpul celui de-al doilea trimestru, ceea ce a fost mai bine decât se așteptau oficialii francezi. În plus Franța s-a confruntat cu aceeași situație și în ultimele două trimestre.

Majoritatea analiștilor economici si-au exprimat opiniile în legătură cu situația economică a Europei și cu posibilele efecte pe care le-ar putea avea aceasta în zona euro. Deocamdată nu se poate pune problema desființării Uniunii Europene, au agreat aceștia, însă este un scenariu posibil. Situația actuală previzionează câțiva ani de stagnare economică.

Întrebat dacă este posibil ca moneda euro să dispară, Lucian Anghel, Economist șef BCR, a declarat că acest lucru nu este imposibil, însă pe termen scurt și mediu nu ar fi o decizie convenabilă pentru Uniunea Europeană.

”Teoretic e posibil, dar practic nu s-ar renunța pentru că s-ar isca un război în Europa”, a spus Lucian Anghel.

Aurelian Dochia a declarat că există mai multe scenarii dintre care cel mai puțin fericit ar fi ”acela când o țară ca Grecia este nevoită să iasă din zona euro”. Al doilea scenariu posibil, în opinia acestuia, ar fi ca „lucrurile să meargă în continuare cu măsuri temporare de rezolvare a crizei, dar măsuri fără substanță, ceea ce înseamnă că nu ne vom confrunta cu o creștere economică spectaculoasă la nivelul zonei euro”.

Întrebat dacă există posibilitatea ca țări precum Germania, Franța, Italia să nu mai dorească să susțină țări slabe precum Grecia și să se izoleze pentru a-și putea salva propriile economii, Aurelian Dochia a spus că un asemenea scenariu nu poate fi primul pus pe masă.

”Nimeni nu va vrea să apară ca fiind primul care a distrus zona euro. Anul acesta în nici un caz. Se poate pregăti într-adevăr așa ceva”, a încheiat acesta.

În ceea ce privește posibilele soluții privind situația actuală a zonei euro, Cristian Păun, conf. univ. în cadrul Facultății de Relații Economice Internaționale, ASE București, a declarat că ”liderii europeni ar trebui să privească spre piață, către capitalul autentic și să încerce să apere bruma de antreprenori care au rămas pe piață”.

Acesta a mai menționat că țările cu economii puternice din Europa nu vor renunța să ajute țările slabe pentru că vor tipări monedă atât cât este necesar ca țările precum Grecia să-și poată acoperi datoria externă.

Şeful Eurogrupului, premierul luxemburghez Jean-Claude Juncker, a dat asigurări într-un interviu difuzat sâmbătă că ieşirea Greciei din zona euro este "tehnic" posibilă, însă din punct de vedere politic este neviabilă şi prezintă "riscuri imprevizibile", semnalează EFE.

"De aceea nu are sens să se fabuleze pe asemenea scenarii", a declarat Jean-Claude Juncker, în interviul publicat de ziarul austriac Tiroler Tageszeitung, citat de Agerpres.

Deşi este "tehnic" posibilă, "o ieşire a Greciei din zona euro nu face parte din ipoteza mea de lucru", a subliniat şeful Eurogrupului.

Potrivit acestuia, Grecia nu va fi expulzată din zona euro, cu excepţia cazului în care această ţară "ar încălca toate normele şi ar nesocoti toate acordurile".

"Situaţia nu este simplă. Problemele sunt complexe, iar zgomotul făcut de schimbul de declaraţii este prea puternic. Întrebările cu privire la Grecia necesită linişte", a afirmat Jean-Claude Juncker, care îşi petrece vacanţa în Austria.

2. Comisia Europeană va propune luna viitoare ca Banca Centrală Europeană să supervizeze toate băncile importante din zona euro, inclusiv băncile de economii şi băncile cooperatiste, informează un articol publicat vineri în cotidianul german Handelsblatt, transmite Reuters, potrivit Agerpres.

Citând surse din interiorul Comisiei Europene, Handelsblatt susţine că executivul comunitar va propune ca autorităţile naţionale să supervizeze operaţiunile de zi cu zi, iar BCE ar urma să intervină numai acolo unde vede "riscuri periculoase". În cazul statelor din afara zonei euro, autorităţile naţionale de supervizare vor fi responsabile în continuare cu supervizarea băncilor.

"Este greu de definit ce este o bancă importantă, ce este o bancă de importanţă sistemică, astfel încât trebuie să fim siguri că în uniunea bancară sistemul de supervizare va fi în măsură să acopere toate băncile", a declarat Stefaan de Rynck, purtătorul de cuvânt al Comisarului european pentru servicii financiare Michel Barnier, cel care elaborează propunerea.

Proiectul Comisiei riscă însă să se lovească de opoziţia Germaniei, care vrea ca BCE să supervizeze doar cele mai mari 25 de bănci europene, exceptând însă casele de economii (Sparkassen) şi băncile cooperatiste (Genossenschaftsbanken) care asigură aproape 40% din finanţarea companiilor germane.

"Nu văd necesitatea de a supune unei supervizări europene bănci care nu au o masă critică pentru stabilitatea sistemului financiar european şi nici activităţi internaţionale", a declarat parlamentarul german Michael Meister, unul dintre liderii CDU, partidul cancelarului Angela Merkel.

La finele lunii iunie liderii Uniunii Europene au căzut de acord să înfiinţeze o autoritate unică de supervizare bancară în Europa. Comisia Europeană ar urma să-şi prezinte pe data de 11 septembrie propunerile privind înfiinţarea unui organism de supervizare bancară în zona euro.

S&P 500 up for sixth week; fear index hits five-year low

The S&P 500 held near a four-year high on Friday, and the market's key gauge of anxiety sank to its lowest since 2007, suggesting a belief that the problems stressing investors might be closer to a resolution.

The Nasdaq outperformed the broader market as Apple shares reached an all-time high. The CBOE VIX volatility index (.VIX) hit a 5-year low of 13.43 before closing down 5.9 percent at 13.45.

The S&P 500 made a solid move above the closely watched 1,400 level in the last session, posting its biggest gain in two weeks. But trading volume remained low.

"From a sentiment point of view, the market has little to inhibit it from proceeding higher," said Ralph Edwards, director of derivatives strategy at ITG in New York.

"The best rallies are, of course, the broadest, so it makes sense to view, in real-time, the stocks that are propelling the index so as to make sure that the advance is not just being carried on the shoulders of one sector. Here, the news is also good."

Edwards noted that 47 S&P 500 stocks in all industry groups except for utilities have recently hit a 52-week high, among them Home Depot Inc (HD), PepsiCo Inc (PEP), Chevron Corp (CVX), SunTrust Banks Inc (STI), Covidien Plc (COV), 3M Co (MMM), Google Inc (GOOG), CF Industries Holdings (CF) and Sprint Nextel Corp (NYS:S).

With few news headlines and light participation during summer holidays, traders are increasingly taking their cues from market technicals. The S&P 500 needs to close above 1,419.04, the index's April high, to make a new four-year high.

Shares in Apple Inc (AAPL) jumped to an all-time intraday high of $648.19 earlier in the session. The stock ended up 1.8 percent at $648.11. The Broker Jefferies raised its price target on the stock to $900 from $800 and gave it a 'buy' rating.

But Facebook shares continued to slide after the expiration of a lockup period on some of the company's stock following its initial public offering. The shares fell as low as $19 a share on Friday.

Groupon Inc (GRPN.O) also slumped to a new low on Friday after Evercore Partners analyst Ken Sena downgraded shares of the largest daily deal company and set a $3 price target on the stock. The stock closed down 5 percent at $4.75, after falling as low as $4.51.

The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) was up 25.09 points, or 0.19 percent, at 13,275.20. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^GSPC) was up 2.65 points, or 0.19 percent, at 1,418.16. The Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC) was up 14.20 points, or 0.46 percent, at 3,076.59.

For the week, the Dow was up 0.5 percent, the S&P 500 was up 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq was up 1.8 percent.

The S&P 500 has risen 2.8 percent in August and about 11 percent since a year low in June as traders eye some encouraging U.S. jobs data and highly anticipated policy meetings at the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in September.

The economic data on Wednesday was mixed, leaving investors wondering if the recovery was real.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for August showed the main index rose to its highest since May to 73.6, buoyed by sales at retailers and low mortgage rates.

Separately, the Conference Board said its leading economic index climbed 0.4 percent, reversing a 0.4 percent decline in June and pointing to slow growth through the end of 2012.

"It's interesting because we've had this mixed bag from the economic data. Today's is a good step and yesterday was a little disappointing, with the housing data, so we are all just kind of wondering, is this recovery real?" said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist, Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Trading volume, which has been meager over the past several sessions during a seasonally slow period, was at 5.3 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq.

This week has seen the lowest and second lowest full-day trading volumes of the year.

The low was hit on Monday with just 4.54 billion shares on the Nasdaq, the NYSE and the Amex, about two thirds of the daily average this year.

The S&P rallied for six days through August 10, boosted by the anticipation of more actions from central banks in the United States and euro zone.

The S&P 500 rose to a four-month peak on Thursday after comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel reinforced investor expectations for action to tackle the euro zone debt crisis.

Gap (GPS) advanced 4.8 percent to $35.99 after the clothing retailer posted a higher quarterly profit and raised its full-year forecast.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL) dropped 14.1 percent to $10.54 after the chipmaker posted second-quarter earnings and said current-quarter results may miss expectations.

Wall Street Week Ahead: Waiting for technical signals

The S&P 500 tortoise continues to beat the skeptics.

In the absence of data or policy catalysts and with the S&P 500 near four-year highs, market participants are hoping technical indicators hold the clues on whether stocks will sell off into September following a slow-speed rally.

The S&P 500 is a scant 0.06 percent away from closing at highs last seen in the pre-crisis days of June 2008, even as an unimpressive earnings season draws to a close. The looming U.S. presidential election adds to the uncertainty, and inconclusive economic data makes any bet on further economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve a risky gamble.

"I'm not laying out any new shorting strategies on fear the Fed could come in," said Brian Amidei, a managing director at HighTower Advisors based in Palm Desert, California.

True to form, market volumes have dried up in August. To some, the lack of volume is a clear signal of the relative weakness of the recent rally. Wall Street this week posted its two lowest volume days of the year, not counting half-days.

What has some other strategists nervous is what they see as relative complacency among investors. Volatility levels as implied by the CBOE Volatility index (^VIX), or VIX, are at their lowest since June 2007.

"We implore you to raise cash into strength ahead of a sharp and swift late summer squall," Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson in New York, said in his latest note. "With both volume and volatility absent from the advance ... conditions are ripe for a rapid risk reversion to the mean."

The VIX closed Friday at its lowest level in more than five years, a time when the S&P 500 was hovering near 1,500 - a level it has failed to approach since the 2007-2009 selloff.

The S&P 500 chart is slightly more bullish than the VIX. After a steep rise to break through 1,400, the index seesawed around that level for about seven sessions in a pattern known as a flag formation. (Why? It kind of looks like a flag.)

Thursday's advance to four-month highs and Friday's confirmation of the new highs indicate 1,400 could become technical support.

Frank Cappelleri, U.S. market technician at Instinet in New York, said the sideways move after the 1,400 break up indicated consolidation and the low volume was typical of such a move in late August.

FED MINUTES AND BEYOND

The minutes of the latest Federal Reserve policy committee meeting, due Wednesday, could be the week's highlight in terms of calendar events as bets on intervention in support of the economy are partly to blame for the recent melt-up.

But with the Fed's annual economic symposium starting the following week at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the Fed minutes could prove to be an insufficient market driver.

"The minutes are useful because they reveal some of the granularity of the discussions," said Lawrence Creatura, portfolio manager at Federated Clover Investment Advisors in Rochester, New York.

"If the Fed had some sort of magic elixir to fix our economy woes," he said, "you would have already seen it."

The back end of the week is heavy in housing sector data with home resales on Wednesday, new sales on Thursday and building permits on Friday.

Housing data has been a beacon of hope for the recovery, and market participants will focus on any improvement as a sign the economy will continue to grow, albeit slowly.

"There's been a lot of talk about a turn in real estate and that it has bottomed," said HighTower's Amidei. "I don't know if I see the turn just yet."

Just over a dozen S&P 500 companies report earnings next week, with the highlight Tuesday as Dell (DELL) and Best Buy (BBY) post their scorecards. Lowe's (LOW) reports on Monday and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) on Wednesday.

Of the 475 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings this season, 68 percent have beat analyst expectations. That is higher than the long-term average of 62 percent and matches the average over the past four quarters.

Procesul de creditare (miscarile de capital) din Europa de Est vor ajuta sau vor ingreuna la depasirea efectelor datorate crizei economice incepute din 2007 ?

Stagnarea creditului în regiune afectează creşterea economică, însă ajută la închiderea deficitelor bugetare şi de cont curent, la reducerea datoriilor externe, creşterea pieţelor locale ale depozitelor bancare şi la apărarea împotriva baloanelor speculative, potrivit unei analize Bloomberg, care citează şi date furnizate de Banca Europeană pentru Reconstrucţie şi Dezvoltare (BERD).

"Bilanţurile acestor economii va fi mult mai curat. Creşterea economică în contextul unui avans mai moderat al creditului are şanse mai bune să fie mai echilibrată", a declarat pentru Bloomberg Kieran Curtis, manager la Aviva Investors, Londra, fond cu active de 4,5 miliarde de dolari pe pieţele emergente.

Sectorul bancar din regiune este dominat de bănci din Vest, în frunte cu UniCredit (Italia) şi Erste (Austria). Grupurile financiare străine controlează 75% din activele industriei bancare est-europene.

Investitorii care urmăresc regiunea s-au arătat îngrijoraţi că retragerea băncilor străine către pieţele şi operaţiunile de bază ar putea deturna revenirea economică a statelor est-europene. Fondul Monetar Internaţional consideră că grupurile financiare vestice au "umflat" creşterea economică a Europei de Est cu 1,5% pe an până în 2008.

Astfel, costul asigurării datoriilor Ungariei şi Poloniei împotriva riscului de neplată pentru următorii cinci ani a crescut la 4,37, respectiv 1,63 puncte procentuale, de la 3,78, respectiv 1,44 puncte la începutul anului trecut, potrivit datelor Bloomberg.

Situaţia Europei de Est din ultimii ani şi din prezent este asemănătoare crizelor din ţările nordice de la începutul anilor '90 şi din Asia de la sfârşitul aceluiaşi deceniu. În ambele cazuri, creşterea rapidă şi puternică a creditului şi influxul puternic de capital străin au creat baloane speculative care s-au "spart" zgomotos. Ambele regiuni au trecut apoi prin recesiuni. Cu toate acestea, pentru unele dintre economiile afectate a urmat un deceniu de creştere. Datoria populaţiei a scăzut în Suedia de la 140% din venitul discreţionar în 1990 la 80% în 1995, iar în Thailanda scăderea puternică a importurilor a transformat un deficit comercial de 16 miliarde de dolari la un excedent de 2,5 miliarde de dolari într-o perioadă de numai cinci ani.

Guvernele din ţările nordice, inclusiv Suedia, şi-au îmbunătăţit disciplina fiscală odată cu ieşirea din criză, potrivit unui raport al McKinsey Global Institute, care consideră că astfel de reforme sunt precondiţii pentru creşterea economică. Continuând paralela, disciplina fiscală pare acum cuvântul de ordine şi în Europa de Est.

Dezintermedierea poate fi un lucru bun, atât timp cât procesul este efectuat "treptat şi ordonat", au afirmat Bas Bakker, şeful departamentului pieţe emergente al FMI, şi adjunctul său, Christoph Klingen, într-o postare pe blogul celui dintâi.

Printre beneficiile care ar putea fi aduse de dezintermediere se numără scăderea datoriei externe, care ar reduce costurile de finanţare şi ar stabiliza monedele, a declarat Bakker la Viena în luna iulie.

Statele din regiune şi-au redus substanţial deficitele de cont curent în ultimii trei ani, iar băncile est-europene se bazează în tot mai mare măsură pe banii atraşi pe plan local pentru finanţarea creditării. La nivel regional, raportul dintre credite şi depozite a scăzut la 101% în februarie, de la 120% în ianuarie 2009, potrivit unui raport al Raiffeisen Bank.

"Criza ne-a învăţat că ceea ce se întâmpla mai demult nu a fost sustenabil. Trebuie să trecem la un model diferit", comentează pentru Bloomberg Gianni Papa, şeful operaţiunilor est-europene ale UniCredit.

El consideră că încetinirea ritmului de creştere a creditului este un lucru bun pentru Europa de Est. Restricţiile impuse de guvernele din regiune pe creditarea în valută ar trebui să împingă populaţia şi firmele către finanţare în monedă locală, care, deşi mai scumpă, va rezulta în construirea unei economii mai stabile şi va preveni formarea unor baloane speculative, a spus Papa.

Datele UniCredit arată că, înaintea falimentului Lehman Brothers în septembrie 2008, creşterea economică din Europa de Est era, în medie, de 5% din PIB pe an, în timp ce creditul avansa cu până la 40% pe an în Polonia şi România. Fluxul de capital s-a inversat între timp, deoarece băncile din Vest încearcă să-şi restrângă portofoliile de active şi să-şi consolideze capitalul propriu pentru a se alinia noilor reglementări financiare internaţionale.

De la jumătatea anului trecut, retragerile de finanţare din Europa de Est au atins "nivelui îngrijorătoare", potrivit grupului Vienna Initiative, format la începutul anului 2009 de băncile din regiune, instituţiile financiare internaţionale, autorităţi şi bănci centrale pentru a menţine stabilitatea economiilor din zonă în contextul crizei financiare mondiale.

Băncile străine au retras din Europa de Est echivalentul a 0,7% din PIB în trimestrul al treilea al anului trecut, respectiv 0,4% din PIB în ultimele trei luni din 2011, potrivit Vienna Initiative, care estimează că rata de retragere a încetinit la 0,2% din PIB în primele trei luni din acest an, dar a accelerat probabil ulterior.

Situaţia este îngrijorătoare în Ungaria şi în ţările baltice. Creditarea ajustată după inflaţie a scăzut în luna mai cu 16% în Ungaria, 15% în Letonia şi 8% în Lituania, raportat la aceeaşi lună a anului trecut. În Polonia, creditul a crescut cu 3,9%, iar în Bulgaria şi România cu mai puţin de 1,5%, potrivit datelor BERD, preluate de Bloomberg.

Deşi ţările din regiune nu pot controla ritmul în care băncile străine implementează procesul de dezintermediere, influenţat în principal de criza din zona euro, revenirea la ratele de creştere anterioare crizei ar fi o idee proastă şi nu este "în cărţi", a declarat pentru Bloomberg Lucian Croitoru, consilier al guvernatorului BNR Mugur Isărescu.

"Sistemul bancar a învăţat o lecţie şi au devenit mai prudenţi. Sigur că avem nevoie de credit pentru a ne ajuta economia, dar este mult mai bine să meargă mai încet, mult mai încet", a mai spus Croitoru.

Posibili vinovati pentru declansarea crizei mondiale inceputa in toamna lui 2007 ?

15 septembrie 2008 - Lehman Brothers era prima banca de investitii de pe Wall Street care dadea faliment, acesta reprezentand momentul propagarii crizei la nivel mondial, semnale existand inca din toamna lui 2007, cand pe Wall Street a inceput formarea bulgarelui care ulterior s-a rostogolit la nivel mondial si s-a amplificat.

Falimentul bancii americane a transformat criza creditelor ipotecare din SUA intr-o criza financiara globala, inghetand pietele de credit si aruncand economia mondiala in cea mai severa recesiune de dupa cel de-Al Doilea Razboi Mondial.

 

Lehman Brothers avea active de 639 miliarde de dolari pe 15 septembrie 2008, cand a intrat in faliment, de sase ori mai mult decat orice alta companie americana care s-a prabusit de-a lungul istoriei.

 

In timp, specialistii au incercat sa gaseasca vinovatii. Cativa bancheri au fost anchetati si trimisi la inchisoare, confiscandu-li-se averile de miliarde pe care le facusera pe Wall Street.

 

 Dar lista cu posibili vinovati nu se incheie aici. Fosti politicieni, bancheri sau mari oameni de afaceri, cu totii au avut contributii mai putin inspirate in timpul recesiunii economice, conform presei.

 

1. Bill Clinton, fost presedinte al SUA

Planul curent al politicienilor de a preveni o alta criza financiara consta in protejarea bancilor cu credite neperformante. Acum 13 ani, acelasi lucru a fost facut de presedintele american Bill Clinton, prin anularea acordului Glass-Steagall. Miscarea lui Clinton, venita dupa un lobby puternic al bancherilor, a fost semnalul care a anuntat nasterea super puterilor bancare. Tot el a preluat abordarea presedintelui Carter, de a forta creditorii sa adopte o atitudine mai intelegatoare fata de cei care se aflau la inceput de drum si intampinau dificultati in a-si achita ratele.

 

2. Gordon Brown, fost premier al Marii Britanii

In ultimul sau discurs electoral, tinut chiar inainte de inceputul crizei financiare, Brown ridica in slavi bancherii pentru rolul acestora in aducerea noii “ere de aur” in Londra. Pentru a-i tenta sa lucreze in oras, a modificat taxele, scazandu-le in Londra mai mult decat in oricare alt oras. 

 

3. George W. Bush, fost presedinte al SUA

 

Scaderea economica a inceput in timpul mandatului presedintelui Bush. Nouriel Roubini, economistul care si-a castigat renumele de Dr. Doom pentru previzionarea crizei, il acuza pe Bush, spunand ca Obama “a preluat un dezastru”. Bush este intr-un exil politic autoimpus, bucurandu-se de o viata linistita in Texas, departe de luminile rampei. In vacanta prelungita, fostul presedinte a lansat si o carte, “Decision Points”, despre cele mai importante 14 decizii din cariera sa. Volumul a fost editat in 1,5 milioane de exemplare, performanta pentru care Bush a fost remunerat cu 7 milioane de dolari.

 

 

4. Alan Greenspan, presedinte al Rezervei Federale a SUA in perioada 1987-2006

 

Greenspan si-a ocupat functia la timp pentru a preveni o prabusire a pietei in contextul situatiei economice precare din anii ’87. A continuat sa guverneze si in perioada de prosperitate a anilor ’90 si tot el era la conducere si in timpul atentatelor de la 11 septembrie, oamenii numindu-l “Oracolul” sau “Maestrul”. Totusi, mentinerea unor dobanzi extrem de scazute, una dintre deciziile pentru care a devenit cunoscut, a incurajat oamenii sa se imprumute din ce in ce mai mult la banci, ajungand in cele din urma sa se ingroape singuri in datorii. 

 

Investitorul american Warren Buffett a avertizat ca acest tip de masuri reprezinta adevarate arme de distrugere in masa. Dupa demisia sa din 2006, Greenspan s-a alaturat grupului Pimco, cel mai mare investitor in bonduri din lume, ocupand momentan functia de consultant special. In ciuda noului job, isi gaseste insa timp sa critice actualul presedinte al Fed, pentru politicile sale monetare.

 

5. Kathleen Corbet, fost CEO la Standard & Poor’s

 

Agentiile de rating, dintre care Standard & Poor este cea mai mare, au acordat ratingul de triplu A unor credite ipotecare fara acoperire, lucru care s-a dovedit a fi extrem de daunator. Unul dintre analisti spunea chiar: “Sa speram ca vom fi bogati si pensionati pana la vremea cand acest castel din carti de joc se va prabusi”. Corbet si-a dat demisia in 2007, in urma unui val de critici si a ales sa investeasca in tehnologie, energie si, bineinteles, companii de consultanta financiara.

 

6. Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, fost director executiv al grupului de asigurari AIG

 

In timp ce AIG se chinuia sa supravietuiasca numeroaselor credite si datorii, peste 100 de directori ai companiei cheltuiau sute de mii de dolari pe sesiuni de golf si spa in California. “Ati auzit de ceva mai revoltator? Isi fac manichiura, pedichiura si tratamente faciale, in timp ce poporul american suporta nota de plata”, spunea la vremea respectiva Elijah Cummings, membru al Congresului American.

 

 

7. Dick Fuld, director executiv Lehman Brothers

“Gorila de pe Wall Street”, asa cum era Fuld cunoscut, se face vinovat de amestecarea grupului Lehman in afacerea creditelor ipotecare. Lehman vandut creditele ipotecare neperformante investitorilor, ceea ce a dus la declansarea crizei financiare. Despre Fuld se spune ca ar fi strans pana la 500 de milioane de dolari din salarii si bonusuri, in timpul mandatului sau ca director executiv, desi acesta insista ca suma reala se ridica la “doar” 300 de milioane de dolari.

 

8. Lewis “Lew” Ranieri, “nasul” finantelor ipotecare

 

Ranieri si-a dorit sa fie bucatar italian, dar faptul ca suferea de astm l-a impiedicat sa lucreze in bucatarie, din cauza fumului. A ales astfel sa se reorienteze catre comert, lucrand pentru inceput la sortarea corespondentei la Salomon Brothers, pentru ca mai apoi sa devina un pionier al afacerilor ipotecare. In 1984, Ranieri se lauda ca biroul sau de credite aducea mai multi bani decat toate afacerile de pe Wall Street la un loc. Dar cand clientii au inceput sa ramana in urma cu platile, piata ipotecara a inregistrat un declin vertiginos si multe banci au fost nevoite sa-si inchida portile. Inr-un interviu acordat in 2009, Ranieri declara ca nu se simte vinovat pentru situatia creata, dand in schimb vina pe bancherii de pe Wall Street, pentru ca au pus eticheta de produse accesibile pe niste lucruri pe care oamenii nu si le puteau de fapt permite.

 

9. Stan O’Neal, fost sef la Merrill Lynch

 

O’Neal este doar o alta victima a setei pentru credite din anii 2000. Bank of America a readus la viata Merrill Lynch, la mai putin de un an de la demiterea lui. Acesta nu a plecat insa cu mana goala, biletul sau de iesire costand firma nu mai putin de 141,5 milioane de dolari.

 

10. Mervin King, guvernatorul Bancii Angliei

 

La inceputul mandatului sau, ratele dobanzilor inregistrau un minim istoric de 3,5%. Ambitia lui King a fost sa stabilizeze si sa calmeze lucrurile. Din pacate, planurile sale nu au reusit sa se materializeze. A reactionat cu intarziere la efectele crizei si initial a refuzat sa urmeze exemplul lui Greenspan si sa pompeze bani in sistem. King a declarat de curand ca aparitia crizei financiare a fost si rezultatul unor greseli majore facute de politicieni, nu doar a lacomiei bancherilor.

 

 

11. Christopher Dodd, fost presedinte in Comisiei bancare din Senatul american

 

Dodd e responsabil de relaxarea reglementarilor pentru bancile Fannie Mae si Freddie Mac, dupa ce primise de la acestia o finantare de 165.000 de dolari in campania electorala. “Ideea ca desfiintarea acestor institutii va rezolva problema, mi se pare o abordare prea simplista”, a declarat Dodd ca raspuns la acuzatiile de conflict de interese.

 

12. Geir Haarde, prim-ministru al Islandei intre 2006 si 2009

 

Haarde este singurul politician gasit vinovat de catre tribunal ca a ajutat la adancirea crizei economice. Acesta a fost acuzat ca nu a reactionat mai prompt in organizarea unor intalniri de cabinet si luarea unor masuri de urgenta. Haarde a fost indepartat de la putere dupa ce trei dintre cele mai importante banci ale Islandei s-au prabusit, iar economia nationala a inregistrat si ea o cadere puternica. Guvernul a fost astfel fortat sa imprumute 10 miliarde de dolari pentru a stabiliza situatia. In timpul procesului, Haarde a declarat: “Nici unul dintre noi nu a realizat la momentul respectiv ca era ceva putred in sistemul bancar, asa cum este atat de clar acum”.

 

13. Mentalitatea de a face imprumuturi fara a avea o baza ca se vor putea inapoia acei bani

 

Sau vorba din strabuni "de a se intinde mai mult decat le este plapuma", prin contractarea unor credite pe care ulterior nu le-au mai putut acoperi, a reprezentat un factor decisiv in destabilizarea economica.