sâmbătă, 23 iunie 2012

economic calendar week 25 - 06/29/2012 or days of major importance for the U.S. - Monday, for ROMANIA - Wednesday to EURO - Thursday and Friday

LUNI: New Home Sales – US
MARTI: S&P Case Schiller House Price Index,CB Consumer Confidence – US
MIERCURI: Decizie de Politica Monetara BNR, Fondul Proprietatea – AGA Aprobare Listare Bursa Varsovia, US – Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales
JOI: Impact – AGA, Tendinte in Evolutia Activitatii Economice, EU – Economic Summit Ziua 1, UK – Final GDP, US – Final GDP, Unemployment Claims
VINERI: Economic Summit Ziua 2, CPI Flash Estimate, US – Personal Income, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Rome Summit: Agreement to increase, but more remains to be done - positive news ptr energy recovery of European capital markets investors or growth plan according to European media

Four main leaders of the Eurozone economies have made a step forward in Rome, on the way to increase, but much remains to be done, a few days before crucial European summit in June 28 to 29, highlights the European press, Saturday, in a synthesis made by agency AFP.
"The first step in Europe for growth," headline on the front page, Corriere della Sera, after meeting the head of the Italian Government, Mario Monti, President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and chief executive of Spain, Mariano Rajoy.
"The summit in Rome: 130 billion immediately," for growth, continue daily, recalling the main point of agreement between the four European leaders, who have set the main objective "recovery growth" by mobilizing the "1% of European GDP and 120 - 130 billion, "says Holland.
For La Repubblica, the summit marks a stage in the birth of a "second euro". EU summit June 28 to 29 "will be the first in which European leaders will abandon hope of saving the old euro and will seek to give birth to a new monetary union issued the genetic flaws" that led to criticism of the euro area, add Italian newspaper .
"The meeting in Rome has not, of course, the final solution and detailed" on any of the issues raised, reminds Il Corriere, even if Monti "seek not agreement, but a convergence" of views "and on many points that already exist ".


 La Stampa published an editorial titled "Small steps of a new Europe", saying that the meeting in Rome replaced the bilateral summits France - Germany.
"The four main euro area countries have a legitimate tone for a working group to prepare" works EU summits, said La Stampa, which emphasizes "total absence of arrogance" of this group.
But the French daily Le Figaro said that "Merkel has kept Hollande's a lesson for reform" in Rome, where the chancellor 'reminded credo or European - budgetary discipline, political union - marking the distance that still separates its partners, with Francois Hollande led ".
"In front of its European partners that Angela Merkel is looking forward to stick his hands in his pockets, his strategy before the European Council in Brussels was Friday, not to give anything," concludes Le Figaro.
For left-wing daily Liberation, the four leaders "have completed the safety principles of growth pact" at a meeting in Rome.
"A good start, indispensable even, but nobody can seriously claim that meet the challenges of life and death facing the Euro area," says newspaper.
Liberation points out that if the need for "political advance" to a "federal leap" was evoked, "no one dared to reveal the terms."
Spanish newspaper El Pais left Rome welcomes the summit "a Europe that gave birth to his own 'Marshall Plan'", adding however that the short term, continue to maintain divisions between European states.
Right-wing newspaper El Mundo, the most important thing is that "goodwill" that have shown the four leaders in Rome "to translate the concrete initiatives" in the EU Summit.


The German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung noted, with irony, that "Merkel should be grateful that he was invited to Mount Mario". "Until now, the euro area countries have followed a rather kindly. Now increases resistance and Chancellor might have to take the difficult decision of his entire term - with consequences on the single currency, the continent, internal policy and the next elections ".
Under the heading "Fight together, but every man for himself" the conservative daily Die Welt boils rather a factual account of the summit. Angela Merkel comments on the issue highlights delaying ratification of laws on the European Stability Mechanism and Budget Pact, which put in difficulty before the European partners.

Angela Merkel will meet Wednesday night in Paris with Francois Hollande. After helping Spain, which will become official Monday, 25.06?, Will also approve the aid package of EUR 120-130 billion euros ptr?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet Wednesday night in Paris with French President Francois Hollande, to prepare the European summit on Thursday and Friday, said Saturday, AFP, a German government spokesman, told AFP.

"It will be held Wednesday evening in Paris, a meeting between Federal Chancellor and President Hollande," he said.

"The meeting will focus on preparing the European Council on Thursday and Friday," he said, confirming an information initially announced by the French daily Le Monde.

Spokesman did not indicate who belongs to the initiative of this meeting.

During his tenure of former president Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor and head of state of France were wont to meet before the big European meetings, which attracted Mercozy nickname.

Meeting in Paris mini-summit comes after Italy - France - Germany - Spain on Friday in Rome, preparing for the meeting next week.

Leaders of four main Eurozone economies demanded mobilization of 120-130 billion in favor of growth, now a European pro rata, in an attempt to remove the old continent in crisis fueled by austerity.


 In June 28 to 29 will happen in Brussels a crucial summit of Heads of State and Government, in an attempt to identify the means to fight the crisis.

So far, it is not known exactly who will represent Romania at the summit: Premier Victor Ponta, who argue that the meeting is an economic, social and internal affairs and invoke this statement in Parliament in Bucharest, Traian Basescu or , invoking the fundamental law of the country, according to which the president represents the Romanian state.

vineri, 22 iunie 2012

IMF approved the fifth review of the agreement with Romania and a tranche of 475 million euros - positive news ROMANIA

Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved on Friday the fifth revision of the agreement with Romania preventive and concomitant dismissal of another 475 million euros of the total amount of 3.5 billion euros.
The fifth review was last conducted by American Jeffrey Franks, who will be replaced this summer by Dutchman Erik the Vrijer.
The main commitment of the agreement is the introduction of private management and partial privatization of state companies, in particular by listing on exchanges, or vânazarea the majority shareholding.
The Romanian government agreed with the IMF to conduct public offerings for 15% of Transgaz until June 15, 15% of Romgaz until mid-September, 10% of Hidroelectrica until mid-October, and to expedite preparations for the sale of 10% Nuclearelectrica the titles later this year. The objective of selling stock to Hidroelectrica can not be achieved within the prescribed period after the company into insolvency.
However, 20% of Tarom actions would be publicly traded by the end of year time limit for disposal of the majority stake in CFR Marfa, according to the letter of intent agreed with the IMF.


 Government is further committed to sell, until the first half of next year, a majority stake in Electrica and minority-owned stakes in Electrica branches already privatized.
Also in the first half of 2013, the government will privatize the new producer of energy to be formed by July 2012 by merging the power Paroşeni mind and my four viable National Coal Company.
The term was established for the privatization of the new EC Oltenia energy producer, created in mid-May through merger Craiova energy complexes, Rovinari and Turceni. ELCEN Bucharest would also be privatized in 2013.

joi, 21 iunie 2012

“Trade Update: Recommending short position in the S&P 500 - Goldman recommendation

We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close above 1390This morning, the Philly Fed print of -16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further evidence that weakness has extended into June.
Although yesterday’s FOMC delivered easing as expected, with a dovish statement, positive risk sentiment ahead of the FOMC had already buoyed markets. And we now think, with incremental US monetary policy on hold, the market will need to confront a deteriorating growth picture near term.
The risk to our recommendation is that the data soon reverts to the 2-percent growth path our economists expect, that China growth turns, or that European policy-makers’ rhetoric buoys risk sentiment further from here, with the upcoming end-of-June summit a focal point on this count.”

Strong decrease of 21.06 American Stock Exchange because of poor economic data and recommendations Goldman Sachs -1.96% DJ

Pietele Americane de actiuni au incheiat sedinta de astazi in scadere puternica datorita datelor economice slabe si dezamagitoare din ultima perioada precum si din cauza unui raport emis de Goldman Sachs care recomanda luarea de pozitii Short (parierea pe scadere) pe indicele S&P500 cu nivelul tinta la 1.285, ce inseamna o scadere de -5% de la nivelele actuale.


Principalii indici au inchis puternic in teritoriu negativ:
  • Dow Jones 12.572 -1,96%
  • S&P500 1.325 -2,23%
  • Nasdaq100 2.859 -2,44%

Moodys a anuntat ca va opera in aceasta seara downgradari ale ratingurilor a 15 banci, ce a contribuit la mentinerea unui sentiment negativ in piete.

Spain borrowing costs getting higher!

The Spanish Treasury sold yesterday, medium-term bonds of 2.22 billion euros (2.8 billion dollars), the yields increase, although demand from investors was high. Target envisaged by the Spanish Government was 2 billion.
      Spain has placed titles with 700 million maturing in April 2014, at an average yield of 4.706%, 2.069% from the previous show in May. Titles have been sold 918 million maturing in July 2015, at an average yield of 5.457%, 4.876% from last month. Spain has placed and bonds maturing in July 2017, worth 602 million euros from an efficiency reached 6.07% from 4.96% in May. However, demand was three to four times higher than supply.
      Market expected last night, Spain formally request financial support up to 100 billion for recapitalization of banks in the country weak.

marți, 19 iunie 2012

GERMANY we restore confidence? will you say?

Financial markets expect the G20 leaders for closer cooperation, said in Los Cabos, German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated the call towards a deeper cooperation at European level, according to AFP.

"I insisted that we need a more integrated and deeper cooperation," said Merkel at the G20 summit.

"Financial markets expect us to cooperate more closely," she adds.

German Chancellor has described as "balanced" discussions on the first day of the G20 summit.

"We need a good dose of budgetary balance and restore growth," said German Chancellor.

In turn, the French President, Francois Hollande, said the EU must "own answer" to the current crisis, without waiting for solutions from outside.

"I met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, sit at the table to the plenary meeting. I was coherent because they have to say the Europeans will solve all the euro area. It is our responsibility," said Hollande.

"In Germany we have some differences. But Europe must have a common response, which must come from outside. France and Germany, given their places in the European Union must work together," Hollande insisted .

What FED will ? what is your opinion?

Consensus is generally that EDF will not announce a quantitative easing - "Quantitative easing", the actual creation of money supply to buy assets - for now, but recent disappointing economic data that EDF may consider extending the program or achitizie long-term securities (known as "Operation Twist"), a few months after its scheduled in June.

"Economists generally anticipate some form of sterilization of the acquisition of assets and an extension of Operation Twist", the chief executive of Morgan Stanley, Gabriel de Kock.

Increased liquidity provided through monetary stimulus measures earlier EDF led to an increase in stocks and commodities and the markets have become highly sensitive to speculation on future measures.

Euro gains ground against dollar, while investors expect the central bank decisions. A new injection of liquidity?

The euro appreciated against the dollar and stocks rose on Tuesday, according to the worsening crisis of sovereign debt in Europe and its impact on global economic growth could lead to measures to stimulate the central banks of major economies of the world?

1. U.S. central bank Federal Reserve begins a two day meeting that will set monetary policy, paying particular attention to the need for new stimulus measures to support frail recovery.
Also, surprising drop in inflation in the UK in May increases the chances that the Bank of England to take additional measures to support the UK economy, the intensification of problems in the euro area.
"Everything leads to another injection of liquidity into the system," said Francois Savary, head of Swiss investment bank Reyl.
However, gains in riskier asset markets have been limited due to concerns about the surge in short-term borrowing costs of Spain, the decline in German investor confidence and recent worries about Greece's commitment to respect the rescue .
The European currency has gained 0.3 percent to around $ 1.2622. Meanwhile, pan-European FTSEurofirst stock index rose 0.75 percent to 300 at 1001.19 points, while Brent oil price reached its lowest level in 17 months, reaching $ 94.44 a barrel amid weak demand caused by slowing eurozone economy.
On the other hand, Spain on Tuesday paid interest rates of over 5 percent to sell Treasury securities in issue on 12 and 18 months, investors are worried that the state will soon have to seek international aid.
"Yields over 5 percent in both lines were returned to levels seen in November 2011, when the market was in a strong stress and the ECB was forced to intervene," said Peter Chatwell, a strategist at Credit Agricole.
Earlier this year, borrowing costs in the euro area fell sharply after European Central Bank flooded the market with about 1,000 billion in cheap loans granted in two long-term refinancing operations, but they have returned to high levels thereafter.
Spain said the ECB should take additional measures to ease the situation on the markets, but the central bank chairman, Mario Draghi, said this month that it is up to politicians to 'fix' the euro area.
However, he gave indications of a decline soon, interest rates, talking about the risks of slowing European economy and that there were risks of inflation in the euro area countries.


2.  In Germania, indicele lunar ZEW, care masoara increderea investitorilor, a scazut in iunie cu cea mai mare rata din octombrie, la -16,9 puncte, de la valoarea de 10,8 inregistrata in mai, mult sub prognoza unui sondaj Reuters format din 42 de analisti, care se asteptau ca indicele sa ajunga la 4,0 puncte.

"In cel de-al doilea trimestru, economia Germaniei este de asteptat sa incetineasca semnificativ, in special investitiile private", a afirmat Christian Schulz, economist senior la Berenberg Bank.

luni, 18 iunie 2012

pessimistic interpretation of the day Monday, 6.18

The Spanish IBEX 35 and the Italian FTSE MIB got crushed today, after Greek elections failed to reassure markets that anything has changed for the troubled Spain and Italy.
Comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel worsened the blow. She told reporters near the end of European trading that she will not budge on the terms of the Greece aid package.
In core Europe, the DAX held on to gains to end just slightly higher, but the French CAC 40 fell 1 percent.
That negativity appears to have carried over into U.S. markets, all of which appeared to drop significantly in the wake of those headlines. Only the NASDAQ is holding onto gains.

your opinion: it's true or false?

comentariu evolutie DJ luni 18.06, stiri pozitive Grecia, dar negative Spania

stirile pozitive venite dinspre rezultatul alegerilor parlamentare din Grecia fiind compensate de cele mai putin bune venite dinspre Spania, unde obligatiunile la 10 ani au atins valori record de peste 7%, iar valoarea creditelor neperformante au atins maximele ultimilor 18 ani.

voi ce asteptari aveti de la saptamana abia inceputa?

agenda saptamanii cu evenimentele economice majore ce pot influenta bursele mondiale

MARTI: Fondul Proprietatea – Situatii Financiare Anuale Consolidate, Intalnire G20 Ziua 2, UK – Inflatia la consumator, Germania – Indicatorul ZEW, US – Building Permits, Housing Starts
MIERCURI: UK – Rata Somajului, US – FOMC – Rata de dobanda monetara, Proiectii Economice si Conferinta de Presa
JOI: CHINA – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI, Franta + Germania + Zona Euro – Flash Manufacturing PMI si Flash Services PMI, UK – Retail Sales, US – Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
VINERI: Germania – Indicatorul IFO, EU – Intalnire Ministrii de Finante ECOFIN

Obama referitor la rezultatele alegerilor din Grecia - un semnal pozitiv

Preşedintele SUA, Barack Obama, a apreciat luni, cu ocazia summitului G20 desfăşurat în Los Cabos (Mexic), că rezultatul alegerilor din Grecia este un semnal "pozitiv", relatează AFP.


"Cred că alegerile din Grecia oferă un semnal de perspective pozitive nu doar în eforturile grecilor de formare a unui guvern, dar şi pentru ca ei să coopereze în mod constructiv cu partenerii internaţionali pentru continuarea reformelor", a declarat Obama cu ocazia summitului G20.

G 20 - Grecia e pe drumul cel bun, Germania si Franta au reusit redresarea situatiei din Europa

Guvernul grec trebuie sa puna in practica angajamentele asumate fata de partenerii sai, a declarat luni, la Los Lobos, in Mexic, cancelarul german Angela Merkel, care a subliniat ca nu este necesara discutarea unui alt program de salvare, relateaza AFP.

"Guvernul grec trebuie si va pune in practica angajamentele" asumate, a afirmat Merkel, care a adaugat ca este nevoie ca Troica finantatorilor internationali (Banca Centrala, Comisia Europeana si Fondul Monetar International) sa se deplaseze la Atena cat mai repede.

"Alegerile nu pot pune sub semnul intrebarii angajamentele asumate de Grecia", a sustinut Angela Merkel. "Nu putem face compromisuri legate de etapele reformelor care fac obiectul unui acord", a continuat cancelarul german, inaintea inceperii summitului G20, care reuneste cele mai bogate tari din lume si economiile emergente.

"Nu discutam de un nou program" pentru Grecia, a subliniat ea.

Dupa mai multe saptamani de incertitudine politica, Grecia este astazi intr-o situatie economica critica si va ramane fara fonduri la inceputul lui iulie. Ea are nevoie urgent de o noua transa din ajutorul financiar international inainte de aceasta data. Aceasta noua finantare nu poate fi insa deblocata decat dupa raportul Troicii, care se anunta mai degraba "negativ", potrivit unei surse guvernamentale europene.

duminică, 17 iunie 2012

rezultate alegeri Grecia - se detensioneaza pietele

ULTIMA ORA Al doilea EXIT POLL in Grecia. Noua Democratie s-a mai distantat de Syriza - 28,6-30% vs. 27-28,4%. Pasok 11-12,5%
ora 21:30 Partidul Noua Democratie (29.5% - 128 locuri in parlament) si PASOK (12.3% - 33 locuri in parlament) sunt in masura sa formeze un guvern de coalitie in Grecia, conform primelor estimari ale Ministerului de Interne.

sâmbătă, 16 iunie 2012

alegeri Grecia - o zi grea si interesanta, asteptata de toti investitorii, voi ce credeti?

Liderul coalitiei stangii radicale din Grecia, Alexis Tsipras (37 de ani), a promis joi seara ''un guvern al tuturor grecilor'' dupa alegerile de duminica si a asigurat ca va mentine Grecia ''in Europa si in zona euro''. "Memorandumul falimentului nostru va deveni istorie de luni", a promis joi intr-un miting electoral liderul Syriza, Alexis Tsipras, cu referire la acordul de salvare al Greciei cu FMI, ajutor financiar in valoare de 130 de miliarde de euro. Tanarul lider al Syriza a avertizat si ca "Bruxelles, asteapta-ne, venim luni sa negociem drepturile oamenilor si sa anulam planul de salvare".

Totusi, in ciuda discursului sau radical, exista speculatii ca pozitia sa ar putea fi mai maleabila daca va fi confruntat cu excluderea din zona euro. Mai mult, pe baza zvonurilor ca sustinerea sa este intr-un usor declin, liderul stangii radicale a declarat la un post tv grec ca ramane deschis discutiilor privind termenii planului de salvare, daca si europenii vor face concesii: "Daca vor spune nu la orice, asta inseamna ca vor sfarsitul poporului grec si al euro”, adaugand ca Grecia nu isi primeste urmatoarea plata din imprumut, a doua zi euro va fi in colaps".

Liderul Syriza a afirmat ca un plan national de redresare a economiei va proteja poporul impotriva unui faliment si a subliniat ca este pregatit sa discute ''o renegociere cu Europa'' in ceea ce priveste planul de austeritate impus Greciei. Singura solutie pentru iesirea din criza este adoptarea ''mai multor masuri de crestere'', potrivit lui Alexis Tsipras.

De cealalta parte, liderul Noua Democratie, Antonis Samaras, si-a exprimat si el speranta intr-o renegociere a planului de austeritate: "Grecia a avut parte de mai mult ajutor fata de alte tari. Relaxarea acestui program de austeritate nu mai poate fi o optiune".

Tot el si-a acuzat principalii rivali in alegerile de duminica, reprezentantii Syriza, ca au in plan renuntarea la acordul cu creditorii internationali, ceea ce ar conduce tara spre colaps.