Reuters Analysis: Week dangerous for Eurozone. Draghi's project to save the single currency, a ray of hope

Euro zone enters a rough week, filled with potential surprises, but in a more optimistic mood as investors welcomed the project proposed by the European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi, designed to prevent a possible dissolution of the monetary union, writes Reuters.
According to British agents, judges Germans, Dutch voters, IMF inspectors and authorities in Brussels are the main players that could next week to launch potentially "explosive mines" to hinder resolving the sovereign debt crisis.
Wednesday is a day with three key important events. German Constitutional Court will give a ruling on the legality permanent bailout fund, the European Commission will present detailed plans for a union bank in the Eurozone and the Netherlands organize general elections.
European finance ministers meet on Friday to discuss the Cyprus banking supervision and further possible support for Spain, the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone and Greece, the country that triggered ceiza issue sovereign debt.
Decisions regarding Spain and Greece are expected in October, but talks could indicate whether the administration will ask the Madrid European aid, with the risk of being subjected to harsh conditions and supervision. Also, the debate could indicate whether the EU and IMF lean toward granting a new tranche of aid to Greece.

 Germany: A verdict that could threaten aid to indebted states
German Constitutional Court decision was expected for two months. According to the lawyers consulted by Reuters, it is likely that judges give a verdict in favor of the European Stability Mechanism and an EU pact of fiscal discipline, but is expected to add tough conditions for further help.
Such a decision could affect the willingness Chancellor Angela Merkel said the bailout's future, especially given that the European Central Bank's decision to buy bonds fragile States was received negatively by German public opinion.
A verdict against European Stability Mechanism would have a devastating effect on bond markets and exchange rate turbulence creating new monetary union and raising questions about whether the rescue of heavily indebted states.
On the other hand, a favorable decision but with limitations could scare off investors and would complicate crisis management.
Judges decision could attach an amendment that gives Parliament a veto over future aid or whether to limit liability for the debts of other countries German monetary union.
Elections in the Netherlands, a chance for rising populist?
Regarding the legislative elections in the Netherlands for several months it was thought that they would result in either a block or a Eurosceptic government either extreme left or extreme right, which would support future bailouts Eurozone members in critical condition.

The latest opinion polls show, however, that the center-right Liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the center-left Labour party are tied while their support of left parties and the populist anti-immigration with policies is declining. In these circumstances, the elections could result in a pro-European coalition.
Such an alliance could have but need a few months of negotiations before the Netherlands, a founding member of the European Union to have a government in power fullness so that plans for tighter integration in the euro zone should be postponed.

Thorny issue of banking supervision
The land bank has already started a dispute between proposals for a unified system of banking supervision conducted by the ECB and a new banking system that the new European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, are about to appear before the European Parliament.
Germany, keen to keep their state-owned banks and the savings on to foreign control, insisting that the ECB should supervise only the top 25 cross-border systemic banks and leave the rest of the banks under national regulations.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the ECB can not monitor all the 6000 euro area banks. According to the Bruegel think-thank, but the real problem lies in the approximately 200 banks that hold approximately 95% of banking assets.
European Commission and the ECB want to apply supervision to all creditors, even if by delegating responsibility to the national tier and the plan seems to be seen in the eyes of bankers.

"If we all banks in the same supervisory mechanism, this would ensure a balance of competition," said chief executive of UniCredit Italy, Federico Ghizzoni, told Reuters adding that "not only big banks systemic risks."
German lawmakers fiercely oppose but long-term plans for a pool and a deposit insurance system, which could present Barroso in his speech Wednesday.