In the summer time - BIG VOLUMES for SIF3 Transilvania - something happens???

Shares of SIF "Transilvania" (SIF3) were the most heavily traded in the three summer months. Over 147,309,234 shares were exchanged between June 1st and August 29th, representing 13.49% of the company's share capital.

The analysts say that the major interest in trading comes from the good earnings the company posted in the first semester. This summer, 77,383,418 shares of SIF4 "Muntenia" were traded (9.59% of the share capital), 61,149,036 shares of SIF5 "Oltenia" (10.54% of the share capital), 35,058,857 shares of SIF2 "Moldova" (6.75% of the share capital) and 29,090,847 shares of SIF1 Banat-Crişana (5.3% of the share capital).

In the last three months, the biggest rise was seen by SIF "Banat-Crişana" (+40%), followed by SIF5 (+36.81%), and SIF3 (+26.75%).

Since June 1st, SIF2 has risen 26.02%, whereas the price of SIF4 fell 5.07%.
 

* Simion Tihon, "Prime Transaction": In the last 60 trading days, SIF3 had an average daily turnover of more than 1 million lei 

Even though it is hard to talk about high volumes, over the last three months, SIF3 and SIF5 have indeed seen trading volumes which exceeded 10% of their share capital, said Simion Tihon, broker at "Prime Transaction". 

 He said: "I think that the hike of the holding limit from 1% to 5% continues to have an effect. Over the last 560 sessions, SIF3 had an average daily liquidity of more than 1 million lei, being the most heavily traded SIF. The earnings it saw in the first semester, as well as the discount it had been trading at after the ex-dividend date have polarized interest in SIF3. 

At SIF < Oltenia >, I think it is really important that they have not yet sold their stake in BCR, and the company is still making good profits under these circumstances. The investment strategy of SIF5 is another catalyst for the investors' interest.

Shares of SIF2 and SIF4 had a good liquidity in the first quarter, and SIF1 saw major trades on the DEAL market. It's natural to have some quiet periods". 

Given the fact that over the last few weeks we have dealt with a period characterized by an acute lack of liquidity, Simion Tihon expects rising volumes in the second half of the year.
      

* Adrian Danciu, "SSIF Broker": "The turnover of SIF1, SIF2 and SIF4 is a gauge for investors' interest in the domestic stock market" 

Over time, each of the SIFs had a better period than the others, in terms of liquidity, as well as from the point of view of the stock exchange dynamic, said Adrian Danciu, analyst at "SSIF Broker".
 For example, SIF4 is a stock that does better against a downward trend of the market, most likely due to its greater diversification when it comes to the financial instruments it has in its portfolio, compared to the other SIFs, the analyst of "SSIF Broker" said. 

He said: "SIF3, together with SIF2, were the ones which reported the best earnings in the first semester of 2012. Due to the fact that the Net Asset Value Per Share (NAVPS) of SIF2 is the highest among the five SIFs, most likely the investors' attention has turned to SIF3. This was probably one of the most important catalysts when it comes to the interest in the shares of SIF < Transilvania >".

Considering the level of liquidity on the foreign markets, which is extremely low, as well as the domestic political context, Adrian Danciu views the turnover in the stocks of SIF1, SIF2 and SIF4 as a gauge for investors' interest in the domestic stock market.

Given the current shareholder structure, as well as the interest shown by some investors in the management, the analyst considers that we can also expect in the coming period for trading in the SIFs to account for a large part of the daily turnover of the BSE.

* Daniela Ropotă, "Intercapital Invest": The volume of SIF3 was average, compared to what was it was at other moments 

Out of the SIFs, it was SIF "Transilvania" that stood out through its trading volumes, even though they were moderate compared to those recorded in other times, said Daniela Ropotă, analyst at "Intercapital Invest".
     There can be several explanations for the trading volume of SIF3, such as the very good earnings it got this year, its investment strategy and the speculation concerning its reorganization, he went on to say.
     Daniela Ropotă went on to say: "It is currently hard to say how liquidity will evolve by the end of the year, since there have been no special events, and it's a tense period not just abroad, but domestically as well. Therefore, there are new arguments needed to motivate investors".
      

* Marcel Murgoci, "Estinvest": "High volumes attract more volume" 

The interest shown by market participants this summer in SIF5 and SIF3 may be due to the potential changes in the shareholder structure, as well in the potential awarding of a greater profit distribution rate, next year, said Marcel Murgoci, operations director at "Estinvest".
 These trades also attempt the accumulation of as much stock as possible in order to ensure a better voting position in the next elections for the board, he said. Furthermore, the higher trading volume recorded by these issuers captured the attention of other investors and a result trading volumes have seen increases: high volumes lead to more volume, Marcel Murgoci further explained.
 He said: "In the case of SIF2 and SIF1, the somewhat lower interest can be explained by the fact that there are no disagreements among shareholders in the two companies.
 In the case of SIF4, volumes have increased constantly, as a result of increased interest from some shareholders, which resulted in the general meetings for elections and the allocation of the special dividend".
 In the future, we may see higher trading volumes, as the general shareholder meetings get closer, with some of them concerning the elections for the boards of directors, said Marcel Murgoci.  

Surse: presa romaneasca