We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a
target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close
above 1390. This morning, the Philly Fed print of
-16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further
evidence that weakness has extended into June.
Although yesterday’s FOMC delivered easing as expected, with a dovish
statement, positive risk sentiment ahead of the FOMC had already buoyed
markets. And we now think, with incremental US monetary policy on hold,
the market will need to confront a deteriorating growth picture near
term.
The risk to our recommendation is that the data soon reverts to the
2-percent growth path our economists expect, that China growth turns, or
that European policy-makers’ rhetoric buoys risk sentiment further from
here, with the upcoming end-of-June summit a focal point on this
count.”
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