"The ECB's bond purchases will clearly have a positive effect. Monetary easing may have a positive impact on the economies that are related to the region where such a policy is applied," said Piroska Nagy, an economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), reports Bloomberg.
Most East European states do not use the euro, but will benefit because the ECB measures encourage cross-border lending and stimulate economic growth in the monetary union, their main trading partner.
Central banks in Eastern Europe are already occupied cope with withdrawal effect of stimulus measures by the US Federal Reserve and shock decision of the Swiss National Bank to remove the ceiling rate of 1.2 francs / euro, which has increased the cost of credit in francs.
Poland and Hungary currencies have depreciated strongly last week, the two countries with the largest share of housing loans in Swiss francs. Zloty and forint depreciated earlier this year by 1.1% and 0.7%.
Eastern Europe yet suffered the impact of the economic slowdown in the eurozone, but the collapse of oil prices has increased pressure lowering prices. Currently, Poland and Hungary is in deflation, while in neighboring countries inflation is at record lows.
ECB incentives could allow East European states to maintain borrowing costs at record lows, and in some cases their continued decline, thereby supporting economic growth, said Neil Schearing, chief economist for emerging markets at Capital Economics, in London.
"Monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe will remain more relaxed than would have been otherwise. Poland and Romania could further reduce interest rates, while the Czech Republic may adjust the threshold appreciation of the crown," said Schearing.
Additional liquidity from the ECB could encourage Western European banks that dominate nearly two-thirds of the banking industry in the East, the banks and Erste Group Bank and Societe Generale, reduce capital withdrawals in the region, said economist.
Draghi involve risks Initiative for Eastern Europe, as well as inflows of speculative bubbles and bond markets, the central bank governor warned last week of Poland, Marek Belka. Poland has maintained last week monetary policy rate at 2%.
ECB will assess the key interest rate at 0.05% monetary policy meeting on Thursday, which most analysts anticipate that the institution will announce the launch of a program to purchase government bonds worth 550 billion euros.
Another risk is that the bond purchase program of the ECB to confirm the extent not already taken into account by active investors in Eastern European markets, said Helena Horské, director of research at Raiffeisen Bank in Prague.
However, the pace of economic growth in Central Europe and the three Baltic states will remain solid 2.6% this year, according to estimates released Monday EBRD. In Southeast Europe, economic advance will be 2.2% in 2015.
An optimistic effects conclude we will undertake measures that 2015 is the European Central Bank Eastern Europe has reason to enjoy the purchases of bonds of the European Central Bank (ECB), which would contribute to economic growth and to avoid deflation, unlike of Switzerland, to where incentives will result in appreciation of the franc.
P.S. And so we try to achieve our goals we have each one.
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