sâmbătă, 23 iunie 2012

economic calendar week 25 - 06/29/2012 or days of major importance for the U.S. - Monday, for ROMANIA - Wednesday to EURO - Thursday and Friday

LUNI: New Home Sales – US
MARTI: S&P Case Schiller House Price Index,CB Consumer Confidence – US
MIERCURI: Decizie de Politica Monetara BNR, Fondul Proprietatea – AGA Aprobare Listare Bursa Varsovia, US – Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales
JOI: Impact – AGA, Tendinte in Evolutia Activitatii Economice, EU – Economic Summit Ziua 1, UK – Final GDP, US – Final GDP, Unemployment Claims
VINERI: Economic Summit Ziua 2, CPI Flash Estimate, US – Personal Income, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Rome Summit: Agreement to increase, but more remains to be done - positive news ptr energy recovery of European capital markets investors or growth plan according to European media

Four main leaders of the Eurozone economies have made a step forward in Rome, on the way to increase, but much remains to be done, a few days before crucial European summit in June 28 to 29, highlights the European press, Saturday, in a synthesis made by agency AFP.
"The first step in Europe for growth," headline on the front page, Corriere della Sera, after meeting the head of the Italian Government, Mario Monti, President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and chief executive of Spain, Mariano Rajoy.
"The summit in Rome: 130 billion immediately," for growth, continue daily, recalling the main point of agreement between the four European leaders, who have set the main objective "recovery growth" by mobilizing the "1% of European GDP and 120 - 130 billion, "says Holland.
For La Repubblica, the summit marks a stage in the birth of a "second euro". EU summit June 28 to 29 "will be the first in which European leaders will abandon hope of saving the old euro and will seek to give birth to a new monetary union issued the genetic flaws" that led to criticism of the euro area, add Italian newspaper .
"The meeting in Rome has not, of course, the final solution and detailed" on any of the issues raised, reminds Il Corriere, even if Monti "seek not agreement, but a convergence" of views "and on many points that already exist ".


 La Stampa published an editorial titled "Small steps of a new Europe", saying that the meeting in Rome replaced the bilateral summits France - Germany.
"The four main euro area countries have a legitimate tone for a working group to prepare" works EU summits, said La Stampa, which emphasizes "total absence of arrogance" of this group.
But the French daily Le Figaro said that "Merkel has kept Hollande's a lesson for reform" in Rome, where the chancellor 'reminded credo or European - budgetary discipline, political union - marking the distance that still separates its partners, with Francois Hollande led ".
"In front of its European partners that Angela Merkel is looking forward to stick his hands in his pockets, his strategy before the European Council in Brussels was Friday, not to give anything," concludes Le Figaro.
For left-wing daily Liberation, the four leaders "have completed the safety principles of growth pact" at a meeting in Rome.
"A good start, indispensable even, but nobody can seriously claim that meet the challenges of life and death facing the Euro area," says newspaper.
Liberation points out that if the need for "political advance" to a "federal leap" was evoked, "no one dared to reveal the terms."
Spanish newspaper El Pais left Rome welcomes the summit "a Europe that gave birth to his own 'Marshall Plan'", adding however that the short term, continue to maintain divisions between European states.
Right-wing newspaper El Mundo, the most important thing is that "goodwill" that have shown the four leaders in Rome "to translate the concrete initiatives" in the EU Summit.


The German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung noted, with irony, that "Merkel should be grateful that he was invited to Mount Mario". "Until now, the euro area countries have followed a rather kindly. Now increases resistance and Chancellor might have to take the difficult decision of his entire term - with consequences on the single currency, the continent, internal policy and the next elections ".
Under the heading "Fight together, but every man for himself" the conservative daily Die Welt boils rather a factual account of the summit. Angela Merkel comments on the issue highlights delaying ratification of laws on the European Stability Mechanism and Budget Pact, which put in difficulty before the European partners.

Angela Merkel will meet Wednesday night in Paris with Francois Hollande. After helping Spain, which will become official Monday, 25.06?, Will also approve the aid package of EUR 120-130 billion euros ptr?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet Wednesday night in Paris with French President Francois Hollande, to prepare the European summit on Thursday and Friday, said Saturday, AFP, a German government spokesman, told AFP.

"It will be held Wednesday evening in Paris, a meeting between Federal Chancellor and President Hollande," he said.

"The meeting will focus on preparing the European Council on Thursday and Friday," he said, confirming an information initially announced by the French daily Le Monde.

Spokesman did not indicate who belongs to the initiative of this meeting.

During his tenure of former president Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor and head of state of France were wont to meet before the big European meetings, which attracted Mercozy nickname.

Meeting in Paris mini-summit comes after Italy - France - Germany - Spain on Friday in Rome, preparing for the meeting next week.

Leaders of four main Eurozone economies demanded mobilization of 120-130 billion in favor of growth, now a European pro rata, in an attempt to remove the old continent in crisis fueled by austerity.


 In June 28 to 29 will happen in Brussels a crucial summit of Heads of State and Government, in an attempt to identify the means to fight the crisis.

So far, it is not known exactly who will represent Romania at the summit: Premier Victor Ponta, who argue that the meeting is an economic, social and internal affairs and invoke this statement in Parliament in Bucharest, Traian Basescu or , invoking the fundamental law of the country, according to which the president represents the Romanian state.

vineri, 22 iunie 2012

IMF approved the fifth review of the agreement with Romania and a tranche of 475 million euros - positive news ROMANIA

Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved on Friday the fifth revision of the agreement with Romania preventive and concomitant dismissal of another 475 million euros of the total amount of 3.5 billion euros.
The fifth review was last conducted by American Jeffrey Franks, who will be replaced this summer by Dutchman Erik the Vrijer.
The main commitment of the agreement is the introduction of private management and partial privatization of state companies, in particular by listing on exchanges, or vânazarea the majority shareholding.
The Romanian government agreed with the IMF to conduct public offerings for 15% of Transgaz until June 15, 15% of Romgaz until mid-September, 10% of Hidroelectrica until mid-October, and to expedite preparations for the sale of 10% Nuclearelectrica the titles later this year. The objective of selling stock to Hidroelectrica can not be achieved within the prescribed period after the company into insolvency.
However, 20% of Tarom actions would be publicly traded by the end of year time limit for disposal of the majority stake in CFR Marfa, according to the letter of intent agreed with the IMF.


 Government is further committed to sell, until the first half of next year, a majority stake in Electrica and minority-owned stakes in Electrica branches already privatized.
Also in the first half of 2013, the government will privatize the new producer of energy to be formed by July 2012 by merging the power Paroşeni mind and my four viable National Coal Company.
The term was established for the privatization of the new EC Oltenia energy producer, created in mid-May through merger Craiova energy complexes, Rovinari and Turceni. ELCEN Bucharest would also be privatized in 2013.

joi, 21 iunie 2012

“Trade Update: Recommending short position in the S&P 500 - Goldman recommendation

We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close above 1390. This morning, the Philly Fed print of -16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further evidence that weakness has extended into June.
Although yesterday’s FOMC delivered easing as expected, with a dovish statement, positive risk sentiment ahead of the FOMC had already buoyed markets. And we now think, with incremental US monetary policy on hold, the market will need to confront a deteriorating growth picture near term.
The risk to our recommendation is that the data soon reverts to the 2-percent growth path our economists expect, that China growth turns, or that European policy-makers’ rhetoric buoys risk sentiment further from here, with the upcoming end-of-June summit a focal point on this count.”

Strong decrease of 21.06 American Stock Exchange because of poor economic data and recommendations Goldman Sachs -1.96% DJ

Pietele Americane de actiuni au incheiat sedinta de astazi in scadere puternica datorita datelor economice slabe si dezamagitoare din ultima perioada precum si din cauza unui raport emis de Goldman Sachs care recomanda luarea de pozitii Short (parierea pe scadere) pe indicele S&P500 cu nivelul tinta la 1.285, ce inseamna o scadere de -5% de la nivelele actuale.


Principalii indici au inchis puternic in teritoriu negativ:
  • Dow Jones 12.572 -1,96%
  • S&P500 1.325 -2,23%
  • Nasdaq100 2.859 -2,44%

Moodys a anuntat ca va opera in aceasta seara downgradari ale ratingurilor a 15 banci, ce a contribuit la mentinerea unui sentiment negativ in piete.

Spain borrowing costs getting higher!

The Spanish Treasury sold yesterday, medium-term bonds of 2.22 billion euros (2.8 billion dollars), the yields increase, although demand from investors was high. Target envisaged by the Spanish Government was 2 billion.
      Spain has placed titles with 700 million maturing in April 2014, at an average yield of 4.706%, 2.069% from the previous show in May. Titles have been sold 918 million maturing in July 2015, at an average yield of 5.457%, 4.876% from last month. Spain has placed and bonds maturing in July 2017, worth 602 million euros from an efficiency reached 6.07% from 4.96% in May. However, demand was three to four times higher than supply.
      Market expected last night, Spain formally request financial support up to 100 billion for recapitalization of banks in the country weak.